Pakistan has been caught in a pincer movement. It cannot afford to have America as an enemy, but nor dare it antagonise Afghanistan. The vast majority of Pakistanis feel revulsion over the attacks on America; they also want to see a new Muslim social compact, purged of the depraved violence, brutality, hatred, intolerance and sheer madness that parades in self-proclaimed “Islamic” garb.
But since 1990, when it refused to abandon its nuclear programme, Pakistan – saddled with $30bn of foreign debt – has suffered from US-imposed sanctions. The sanctions were expanded in 1998 after Pakistan, following India, carried out nuclear tests. A year later, the International Monetary Fund suspended its lending and aid programme over a failure to implement agreed reforms. Pakistan is economically on its knees. Almost one-third of its people cannot meet daily nutritional requirements.
For the past year, the country has basically been run jointly by the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Bank. Staff from the international agencies sit in the finance ministry vetting all budget proposals. Even budgets for provinces like Sindh and cities such as Lahore and Peshawar are “pre-audited” by the banks. If Pakistan concedes to US demands, sanctions will be lifted, debt rescheduled and much-needed loans made available.
But President Musharraf’s strategy – to develop a consensus for military action against the Taliban – is bound to increase internal strife. Sectarian violence has become endemic in Pakistan. Two fanatical groups have spread terror throughout the country. Sipah-e-Sahaba (“Soldiers of the Companion of the Prophet”), a group of Sunni puritans, have declared war on the Shi’a community. Their killings are avenged by Sipah-e-Muhammad (“Soldiers of Muhammad”), a cluster of Shi’a militants. A favourite tactic of both groups is to roar up on a motorbike, unsling a kalashnikov and machine-gun a mosque full of worshippers. Then there are the Deobandis and Barelvis, two obscurantist schools of thought that have fought each other for years. One dates back to the 1860s, the other to 1920; recently, their theological quarrel has turned violent.
Hardly a week goes by without sectarian killings. In June, bomb blasts brought Karachi, the largest city and only port, to a standstill. Gangs of fanatics roamed the streets. Buses were burnt, transport paralysed, and markets and commercial centres, as well as schools, were closed down.
The Taliban have added to Pakistan’s woes. A large segment of the Afghan population, running away from the oppression of the regime, now lives in Pakistan: as well as the 1.2 million refugees in squalid camps near Peshawar in the north, millions roam the streets of Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad looking for work. They have brought their ancient gun culture with them. The country is awash with weapons, with an estimated one million guns in private hands. You can hire a gun to do a dirty deed just as you would rent a video. The Afghans have also brought the Taliban brand of bigotry with them.
The word taliban means students. Most are the product of Madrasa Haqqania, a seminary in Akora Khattak, near Peshawar, established in 1942. During the Afghan war, it was extended by the Pakistani military at the instigation of the Saudis, who provided most of the funding, and the CIA, which provided most of the weapons, to produce young men to fight in Afghanistan. The simple-minded youth, encouraged to “love death more than life”, fought the Russians with brutal ferocity.
Madrasa Haqqania, and other seminaries in the north have now become hatcheries for puritan hotheads. They supply the Taliban with their senior figures, as well as the Kashmiri militants with their foot soldiers. It is also the backbone of Lashkar-e-Taiba (“Army of Students”), the militant outfit fighting India in Kashmir.
All these groups claim to be fighting for an “Islamic state” in Pakistan. But as Musharraf recently told a gathering of mullahs, there is nothing Islamic about a country where people kill each other wantonly, “when there is no justice for the poor and destitute, when our women are relegated to second-class citizenship”. No wonder nobody would invest in Pakistan, he said. These words only increased the resolve of the mullahs; now their aim is to bring down the military regime. But Musharraf’s more immediate concern is the Pakistani army itself. A segment is fanatically loyal to the Taliban, and Musharraf himself may become the victim of a coup.
Musharraf would dearly like to get rid of Osama Bin Laden, who has provided backing for militant groups in Pakistan and inspiration for religious students. But the Taliban are doubly indebted to him: not only did he help financially in the Afghan war against Russia, he is also implicated in the recent murder of Ahmed Shah Masoud, the arch enemy of the Taliban. Bin Ladin has made the Taliban the sole rulers of Afghanistan.
The Taliban now firmly believe in their own invincibility. They broke down one Shaitan (Satan), the Soviet Union; they see it as their destiny to destroy the other: the “American empire”. Their dearest desire is to see American troops on Afghan soil.
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