As Andy Burnham toured the country this summer, meeting voters and hearing about how life really is for people in the country he now governs, he began taking notes. In snatched moments in-between visits, on trains and in the back of his ministerial car, he wrote about the change the country needs, what has been done right by Westminster, and what politics has got wrong. In an “iterative process”, refined by what voters were saying to him, it became the statement Burnham delivered in parliament on 1 September, his first to the House of Commons as Prime Minister.
“He’s had a decade away to think about what’s been done well and not well,” a No 10 insider says. “He obviously came back to Westminster with a clear vision for what he wanted to do. But over the last six weeks out and about, he’s refined that further.” He already had a sense that the change people needed from politics is bigger than anything that has been offered by governments of recent years, including Keir Starmer’s. The summer only reaffirmed it for him, while underlining that where government policy is strong – on Ukraine, for example – there is no point in change for the sake of it.
Burnham told his MPs in that first statement in parliament as Prime Minister that he has a clear direction for the country, underpinned by an optimism and belief that the UK can tackle problems that have been put off for too long. Government insiders are delighted with their strong start, the poll bounce and the flurry of announcements that took place over the summer. But they know all too well that the real governing is only just beginning. There’s a tricky autumn ahead, as big decisions loom and everyone adjusts to the new order of things.
“It’s all very like the first day back at school,” one MP mused on the day parliament returned. “But it’s a new school, we don’t know what the social groups are, we don’t know what the teachers are like, we don’t know what the atmosphere is going to be like.” The rebels are now in cabinet, while many of the old cabinet are on the back benches and plotting their next move. Darren Jones, former chief secretary to the Prime Minister, wasted no time in firing another warning shot in the Times on the day of parliament’s return, indicating that he and colleagues will be watching Burnham’s every move carefully from the back benches. “We shouldn’t rely on public spending as a route to some romantic version of making Britain great again as we look in the rearview mirror for a great history that is no longer available to us,” he wrote.
“We’re all watching to see what Darren and Steve [Reed] do next,” a government insider admitted, anticipating the formation of an awkward squad on the back benches cohering around fiscal prudence. They also suggested keeping an eye on other former cabinet ministers, such as David Lammy, in the coming weeks. “If you were thinking of making a tilt at any of the big mayoralties in 2028, now would be a good time,” the insider noted. The jostling for those jobs could create another headache for Burnham.
Keir Starmer’s announcement that he will be resigning as the MP for Holborn and St Pancras – also on the first day back in parliament – was another reminder of the sensitivities that remain inside the Labour Parliamentary party after Starmer’s departure, with some bitterly reflecting on how he had been treated (others mocked him for going out on one final U-turn). The many Labour MPs who had their hopes up for a job in the Burnham government and found themselves disappointed six weeks ago are another group still working out how they will behave in the brave new world.
“The vibes have changed but the fiscal reality hasn’t,” one cabinet minister told me in a brief moment of candour earlier in the summer. Burnham and John Healey’s first Budget, on 28 October, will still be “really, really hard”, they feared, noting the continued impact of the war in Iran on borrowing costs, the spending pressures on defence, and the constraints that Burnham inherits from his predecessor on tax pledges and spending rules.
Yet one of Burnham’s great skills on his journey to becoming Prime Minister has been sequencing difficult decisions: not allowing himself to be bounced into commenting on national policy during the Makerfield by-election; not committing to announcing his cabinet before he was Prime Minister; and so on. He appears to be applying that skill to the Budget process too. He has been facing a strategic question as to whether to do a “big Budget or small Budget”, as one Labour insider puts it, and he has chosen a smaller one, covering important topics like devolution but ultimately deferring the questions that will require huge spending decisions – such as welfare, social care and hitting the 3 per cent of GDP spending target on defence – until after his ten-year plan, due to be unveiled in November.
But the trade-offs will still be difficult. On the cost of living, Burnham and Healey could find themselves under pressure to intervene further as energy bills rise, just as Jones and others urge them to keep a careful eye on the balance sheet. “It’s interesting,” a former adviser notes: “Starmer’s government was largely filled with centrists pursuing this really quite left-wing economic agenda while not being very happy about it, in part due to soft-left back-bench pressure… Now you’ve got a soft-left cabinet with centrist backbenchers, and I suspect the pressure is going to pull the other way.”
Yet Burnham will also face the same “soft-left” pressures as Starmer, from Labour MPs hoping their new Prime Minister will be as radical as he once promised. “Andy’s problem is he’s been the fun uncle for such a long time that he’s told us we can have all the things we want,” one Labour MP observes. “We thought we were going to get an Ed Miliband chancellorship, we’d all be able to do hashtag-RefugeesWelcome politics, and we’re not going to be able to do that. We never were going to be able to do that, but there will be a bump back down to Earth.” Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms and Pat McFadden’s welfare changes are two such issues where Labour MPs may find themselves forced to swallow reforms they don’t much like.
The elections bill, which promises to give votes to under-16s, is an early example of the problems Burnham faces from the positions he took before entering No 10. The bill now also comes accompanied with a long list of amendments signed by eager Labour MPs during the “lame-duck summer” before Burnham officially became Prime Minister. With Starmer on his way out and no whipping operation in place, Labour MPs introduced and signed all sorts of amendments that were consistent with Burnham’s then-position – such as favouring electoral reform and introducing a cap on political donations. “I’m now faced with a decision as to whether I’m going to vote for all the amendments that I signed when it was consistent with Andy’s position,” one Labour MP says, joking that they will ask their whip “which flavour of Andy Burnham they are meant to be agreeing with”. Government insiders expect most of the trickier amendments to be ruled out of scope by the Speaker, but it nevertheless exemplifies the challenge ahead for Burnham.
Another early issue will be on Rosebank and Jackdaw, the North Sea oil and gas fields for which a decision is due in September. Rosebank, an oilfield off the coast of Shetland which would contribute 250 million tonnes of emissions to the atmosphere over its 25-year lifespan, is particularly controversial among Labour MPs, who made their discontent about the prospect of approving it clear under Starmer’s leadership. Burnham has been lukewarm on the issue to date, saying he wants a “pragmatic approach”, although there are suggestions a decision on Rosebank could be deferred.
“The Rosebank uneasiness is pretty widespread,” one Labour backbencher notes, “even if a lot of people who are uneasy about it don’t want to say it. It would look like giving up on the climate.” Rosebank risks becoming a high-profile moment of betrayal among progressive voters if Burnham makes the wrong call, his MPs warn. “There is a set of voters who are waiting for an excuse to say ‘Andy has betrayed us and we’re going to vote Green,’” one notes, adding that there is a likelihood that a highly organised campaign group will mobilise around the issue, driving it up the agenda. Jackdaw, off Aberdeen, is now “priced in” and seen as less controversial as a gas (rather than oil) field, with government insiders arguing that it is better, environmentally and economically, to produce gas in the UK rather than importing it, if gas is to continue as part of the UK’s energy mix for years to come. They also argue that the economic boon from home-produced gas fields could help to fund the green transition. Yet even Jackdaw could prove difficult for Labour if it is fighting a high-profile by-election against the Greens in Starmer’s old seat.
With these issues bubbling away in the background, Burnham, the fun uncle turned responsible parent, will address the Labour Party faithful in his conference speech on 29 September and is pressing ahead with writing his ten-year plan, in which many of the thorniest questions facing the country will be addressed. Already, Burnham is discovering some issues for which changes are easier said than done. Having suggested that public control of water companies, for example, would be a major first move from his government, he has allowed the issue to be pushed back as politicians realise the question is more complex than they initially thought. (“Why did they think we just didn’t do it years ago?” asks one Starmerite with a roll of their eyes.) As with the early release of prisoners, which emerged as the top issue of the summer, government insiders wonder if there will be a moment that forces their hand sooner than expected.
Yet Burnham is taking these big calls one at a time. His critics say his honeymoon is over and the hard work begins now. But for the new Prime Minister, the optimism continues. At each stage of his route to the premiership, difficulties that lay ahead were much discussed, including by me, only to be neatly resolved by the time he actually came to them. He has a big autumn ahead, with speeches, a Budget, the ten-year plan and a host of other complicated policy issues to address, and with jittery backbenchers and jilted ex-cabinet ministers to contend with. It looks knotty, but, going on precedent, he may navigate it more smoothly than we think.
[Further reading: Kemi Badenoch bets on an early election]
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This article appears in the 02 Sep 2026 issue of the New Statesman, Meet Generation Screwed
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Subscribe here to commentHardly a mention of the Black Hole the economy is in. We must find a way to increase the amount of tax paid in order to fund social care, improve youth employment, bribe our way back into the Customs Union. The Chancellor will find it difficult to find the funds necessary to increase spending on defence unless he somehow gets more money from the rich. Reduce the tax allowance for pension contributions to 20%, the rate that the majority of us have to live with. Abolish the right to the State Pension for anyone with a private pension of more than £50,000. Impose a tax on assets valued at more than £10 million. The question is always one of courage. Blair failed to reform Council Tax which is based on 1991 property values, failed to touch the voting system which is totally biased towards the middle classes and the old. Time for courage.