Trump or Harris, who will win? The New Statesman’s US election forecast
Our model predicts a very close contest.
ByDonald Trump
Donald John Trump, born in 1946, is president of the United States, after beating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. His previous term in office was from 2017 to 2021. His first presidency was marked by drama and controversy. Find our latest news and comment here.
How Kamala Harris wins in Pennsylvania
One poll has Democrats out-performing expectations with white voters in the Rust Belt.
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Ralph Nader: “The election is between the fascism of Trump and the autocracy of Harris”
The four-time presidential candidate on why he holds out little hope for the future of American democracy.
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Gabriel Sherman: “Donald Trump is older and less sane and angrier”
The screenwriter of the scathing biopic The Apprentice on provoking the wrath of the former president.
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Silicon Valley’s greatest moonshot
Big Tech’s billionaires aren’t scared of Trump – they like what he’s selling.
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Donald Trump’s fascist designs
He might not be able to rule as a dictator – but he will try.
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The spectre of American fascism
Kamala Harris’s bid for power is part of a long struggle against the politics of racism.
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JD Vance wants to lead the Maga movement
Donald Trump’s running mate seems prepared to put his desire for power ahead of American democracy.
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Trump’s GOP takeover
How a demagogue remade the Republican Party and transformed US politics.
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The US election looks narrower than ever
More than 50 million early votes have been cast. What can we learn from them?
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Are the polls underestimating Trump?
What we can learn from analysing a candidate’s campaign trail.
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Labour has become a weapon in Trump’s campaign
Republicans are accusing the UK’s governing party of election interference – but what’s really going on?
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The media is damaging public life by “sanewashing” Donald Trump
Should we avoid reporting reality simply because it isn’t new? Plus: unease at the Observer and the tragic death of…
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Where does the next US president stand on the climate?
A Trump or Harris presidency will mean very different things for rising global temperatures.
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Donald Trump, hero of the McDonald’s proletariat
His fast-food photo op was a stroke of electioneering genius.
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Letter from Michigan: “No one I know is voting for Kamala Harris”
Will Donald Trump win the struggling swing state?
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Kamala Harris’s convictions are still a puzzle
The Democratic candidate has U-turned on some issues and aligned herself with Donald Trump on others. What does she stand…
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The Apprentice: a grotesque, compelling Trump satire
You may think you never want to see a film about Donald Trump. But this tale of his relationship with…
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Kamala Harris must grapple with America’s Founding Fathers
To achieve a new political settlement, she has to resolve a tension dating from the Revolution.
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Republicans are waging lawfare to win the White House
Democracy be damned.
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