Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Science & Tech
  2. Coronavirus
28 April 2020updated 26 Jul 2021 6:25am

Outlook for European economies worsens as GDP forecasts revised downwards again

By David Ottewell

Global economic forecasts for major western nations hit by Covid-19 have been revised downwards again, with Italy now set to see its GDP drop by more than 8 per cent during the year.

The latest figures from GlobalData suggest the UK’s economy will shrink by 5.4 per cent, France’s by 6.0 per cent and Germany’s by 5.2 per cent. All three of those forecasts are worse than similar figures produced last week.

Japan has seen an even sharper dip in its economic prospects after a rise in Covid-19 cases prompted Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to declare a national state of emergency. GlobalData now predicts Japan’s GDP to shrink 4.4 per cent in 2020, down from a predicted 3.2 per cent last week.

Overall, the global economy is now expected to shrink by 2.2 per cent in 2020, a slight improvement on the 2.3 per cent predicted last week. That is mainly down to the relative success of containing major coronavirus outbreaks to Europe, North America and parts of Asia. 

Major stock markets indices in the UK, France, Germany and Italy were stable this week but remain at below 90 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.

Sign up for The New Statesman’s newsletters Tick the boxes of the newsletters you would like to receive. Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. A handy, three-minute glance at the week ahead in companies, markets, regulation and investment, landing in your inbox every Monday morning. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section and the NS archive, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.

We are using exclusive dynamic figures provided by GlobalData analysts to track key economic indicators in major world economies hit by Covid-19. Deaths from the virus are plotted alongside the indexed performance of each country’s major stock exchange and the number of job vacancies open for applications. Figures are tracked daily from 1 March, 2020.

Covid-19 macroeconomic dashboard

Content from our partners
How do we secure the hybrid office?
How materials innovation can help achieve net zero and level-up the UK
Fantastic mental well-being strategies and where to find them