A leading University of Cambridge statistician has said he believes more people in England are now dying from Covid-19 outside of hospitals than in them.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, who has sat on a number of government advisory and review groups over the past decade, says we can be “very confident” that deaths in English hospitals peaked around 8 April, before steadily declining. New Care Quality Commission (CQC) data published today shows that the coronavirus-related death rate in care homes is accelerating, and Spiegelhalter told the World at One that deaths outside of hospitals appear to account for the bulk of new deaths.
“[CQC data] is really quite up to date, only a couple of days’ delay, but that goes right up until April 24 – just a few days ago – when they were getting 400 notifications a day of deaths in care homes from Covid,” he said.
“When we add on deaths at home from Covid, makes me – slightly sticking my neck out – believe that recently that more deaths occurring from Covid out of hospital than in hospital.”