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28 April 2020updated 06 Oct 2020 9:45am

More people now dying from Covid-19 outside of hospitals than in them, says leading statistician

By Samuel Horti

A leading University of Cambridge statistician has said he believes more people in England are now dying from Covid-19 outside of hospitals than in them.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, who has sat on a number of government advisory and review groups over the past decade, says we can be “very confident” that deaths in English hospitals peaked around 8 April, before steadily declining. New Care Quality Commission (CQC) data published today shows that the coronavirus-related death rate in care homes is accelerating, and Spiegelhalter told the World at One that deaths outside of hospitals appear to account for the bulk of new deaths.

“[CQC data] is really quite up to date, only a couple of days’ delay, but that goes right up until April 24 –  just a few days ago –  when they were getting 400 notifications a day of deaths in care homes from Covid,” he said.

“When we add on deaths at home from Covid, makes me – slightly sticking my neck out – believe that recently that more deaths occurring from Covid out of hospital than in hospital.”

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