Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Science & Tech
  2. Coronavirus
28 April 2020updated 06 Oct 2020 9:45am

More people now dying from Covid-19 outside of hospitals than in them, says leading statistician

By Samuel Horti

A leading University of Cambridge statistician has said he believes more people in England are now dying from Covid-19 outside of hospitals than in them.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, who has sat on a number of government advisory and review groups over the past decade, says we can be “very confident” that deaths in English hospitals peaked around 8 April, before steadily declining. New Care Quality Commission (CQC) data published today shows that the coronavirus-related death rate in care homes is accelerating, and Spiegelhalter told the World at One that deaths outside of hospitals appear to account for the bulk of new deaths.

“[CQC data] is really quite up to date, only a couple of days’ delay, but that goes right up until April 24 –  just a few days ago –  when they were getting 400 notifications a day of deaths in care homes from Covid,” he said.

“When we add on deaths at home from Covid, makes me – slightly sticking my neck out – believe that recently that more deaths occurring from Covid out of hospital than in hospital.”

Sign up for The New Statesman’s newsletters Tick the boxes of the newsletters you would like to receive. Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. A handy, three-minute glance at the week ahead in companies, markets, regulation and investment, landing in your inbox every Monday morning. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A weekly dig into the New Statesman’s archive of over 100 years of stellar and influential journalism, sent each Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
I consent to New Statesman Media Group collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy