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29 April 2020updated 06 Oct 2020 9:45am

Lunchtime summary: A long, painful path down from coronavirus peak

By Samuel Horti

Headlines this morning have been full of congratulations for Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds on the birth of their baby boy, which has kept Johnson away from this morning’s Prime Minister’s Questions (Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is filling in). But the latest data for coronavirus deaths tells its own story: one of a long, slow descent from the peak that will bring more deaths than the path up to it.

Our analysis shows that Italy, as an example, recorded 11,591 Covid-19 deaths up to a peak on 30 March. Since that peak, the country has seen 15,768 more deaths. “Other countries can expect to tread a similarly grim path,” writes David Ottewell, head of data journalism at New Statesman Media Group, in a piece this morning.

In other news, Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has confirmed schools are likely to reopen in a “phased” way. This is the approach most European countries have taken, allowing some schools to open – such as nursery schools – but not others.

Later today, the UK government will reveal its first daily set of figures for care homes deaths – stay tuned to the blog for the news as it arrives. New figures out of Scotland in the last few minutes show that, last week, more people died of Covid-19 in care homes than in hospitals. Expect more on that on this blog shortly.

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