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8 September 2015

Does this chart show the day Jeremy Corbyn won the Labour leadership?

By Stephen Bush

I’ve been taking a look at Google’s search trends. 

See that spike in interest in Jeremy Corbyn? It came after Labour voted to abstain on the Welfare Bill – in my view the moment a Corbyn victory went from probable to certain. 

What about that surge in support for Yvette Cooper? There is excitement around Westminster about the shadow home secretary’s chances of catching the Islington North MP. (Privately, Corbyn insiders remain confident of victory – their own get out the vote of identified supporters is going so well that they are now beginning to canvass unidentified Labour members again – and even among this latter group, Corbyn’s position is strong. Most backers of Liz Kendall and Andy Burnham believe that Cooper has no chance of defeating Corbyn, either) Here’s the search trends for the two of them:

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A surge, this ain’t. Let’s look at how she compares to Burnham:

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It may be that Cooper has done enough these last days to beat Burnham into second. But beyond wishful thinking, there remains little evidence for anything other than an overwhelming victory for Corbyn this Saturday.