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Commons Confidential: Not resigning is the new loyalty in Theresa May’s circus

Your weekly dose of gossip from around Westminster.

Intrigued health officials diagnose sudden cockiness in Jeremy Hunt. The prognosis is a cash injection in funereal Phil Hammond’s Budget or the promise to be moved out of the NHS for the health sec. Begging to be sacked is gloomy Patrick McLoughlin. Left clutching for months an unused Dignitas ticket, the forlorn Tory chairman’s a redundant bystander in the Pestminster scandal. My Tory snout murmured that not resigning is the new loyalty in Theresa May’s circus.

Electoral arithmetic’s part of the equation as Labour wrestles with suspended Jared O’Mara, a Sheffield MP who didn’t travel far on his journey from misogyny. The one-time bar owner uneases the party by whining he might quit the House of Horrors imminently. Losing a by-election to the Libs would hurt but for the Cons would be a disaster, reinforcing May’s vulnerable majority. Desperate Labour hopes £74,000 a year will avert a calamity.

Brexit sleazester Mark Garnier ordering then assistant Caroline Edmundson, a parliamentary fixture married to Sky News foghorn Jon Craig, into a Soho sex shop to buy a couple of vibrators is reducing everyday gripes. Waistcoated Yorkshire Tory Alec Shelbrooke observed that his own hirelings would no longer object if he sent them to Costa for coffees.

Rags to riches Labour peer Andrew Stone (aged 15 he started selling cloth from a market barrow and rose to become boss of M&S) is launching an all-party yoga group to promote the benefits of spiritual stretching. Contorted Theresa May could discover peace of mind by copying India’s asana-sitting Narendra Modi. Most of her louche cabinet struggle to stand on two legs never mind do a downward-facing dog.

Word reaches my lugs of Scottish Secretary David Mundell warmly slapping on the back SNP-er John McNally after the Nat brandished a red card for Douglas Ross, the Moray Tory censured for skipping parliament to be assistant referee at a Barcelona football match. Mundell used to enjoyed his vanquished status as the only Scottish Tory, and now frets that he’s the odd 13th in the baker’s dozen sitting on Conservative benches.

Forget alleged extreme porn. The wife of a Tory minister whispered to me she’d feared a Damian Green invitation to join him at home in Kent was found on the computer cops examined. An entirely innocent bidding, I’m sure.

Commons staff whisper that a right-wing former minister was questioned after the Brexiteer pointed at non-British waiters and mocked “you’re going home”. The MP maintained it was “banter” to escape censure. My snout with the tray is unamused.

Kevin Maguire is Associate Editor (Politics) on the Daily Mirror and author of our Commons Confidential column on the high politics and low life in Westminster. An award-winning journalist, he is in frequent demand on television and radio and co-authored a book on great parliamentary scandals. He was formerly Chief Reporter on the Guardian and Labour Correspondent on the Daily Telegraph.

This article first appeared in the 09 November 2017 issue of the New Statesman, The Tory sinking ship

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South Africa’s new dawn: How Jacob Zuma’s misrule was ended

“We are going to look back at the past ten years and think of it as a lost decade.”

On the afternoon of 13 February, as South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma was recalled by his party, the African National Congress (ANC), a popular Johannesburg radio station began receiving calls about a peculiar incident.

A truck had lost its load along the M2 highway and people were scurrying to pick up what they believed to be tiny nuggets of unprocessed gold. The highway became congested as motorists pulled over to join the search. Even for a city that rose from the dust of a gold rush, this was a bizarre scene.

The first radio caller was giddy with excitement, as was the second. The third did what South Africans do best: he made light of an otherwise confusing and anxious day in the young nation’s history. “It’s manna from heaven,” the caller said. “Zuma’s just been recalled and already the roads are paved in gold.” Nine years into the president’s disastrous rule, South Africans had not lost their sense of humour – and were awaiting a new dawn. The police cleared the scene along the M2, no one proclaimed a worthy find and the nation returned to waiting for Zuma’s next move.

Technically, the president did not have to resign as head of state, despite the opposition of the ANC, the proud liberation movement turned ruling party that Zuma led for a decade until December 2017. Realistically, he had no options left.

With an overwhelming majority in parliament, the ANC was ready to table a motion of no confidence the next day. Defiant to the end, these final hours on the eve of Valentine’s Day were Zuma’s last stand.

They called him the “unstoppable tsunami” and with good reason. Zuma damaged South Africa and the ANC in ways only history will fully capture. He wrecked a country struggling to rebuild itself under the shadow of apartheid. Under his rule, the economy stagnated, unemployment rose, poverty grew, violent crime spiked and corruption became endemic.

“South Africa was headed in the wrong direction,” says Mmusi Maimane, leader of the Democratic Alliance, the official opposition, which governs in cities including Johannesburg and Cape Town. “We are going to look back at the past ten years and think of it as a lost decade,” the political analyst Stephen Grootes concludes.

Zuma lurched from one scandal to the next. He was acquitted of rape, avoided almost 800 corruption charges for over a decade and nearly crashed the economy by recklessly firing a respected finance minister. Taxpayers were misled over exorbitant upgrades to his private mansion (a swimming pool was defended as a fire-fighting feature) and his friendship with the controversial Gupta family placed him at the heart of what became known as “state capture”: the looting of state coffers through the corruption of senior government officials.

“State and independent institutions were repurposed for the enrichment and protection of Jacob Zuma,” says political commentator Justice Malala. “He went through the guts of the framework, pulled out the institutions he needed and systematically broke them down or took away their independence.”

The institutions ranged from the tax revenue service to the public broadcaster, from the police to the prosecuting authority, and from the intelligence services to crucial industries such as mining.

Although constitutionally barred from governing beyond 2019, Zuma was widely believed to have engineered a plan to hold on to power (and avoid prosecution) through his ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who was campaigning to take over from him. By December, when the ANC met to pick its next leader, who would go on to become the country’s president in 2019, a mood of despair and hopelessness had set in.

The race was close. In the end, 179 votes out of nearly 5,000 cast separated Dlamini-Zuma from her challenger, Cyril Ramaphosa, a former union leader and businessman who had campaigned on an anti-corruption and pro-growth platform.

Ramaphosa’s victory in mid-December was a turning point. It removed the prospect of Zuma’s continued rule, began an instant shift in political power and sparked a moment of renewed hope. Ramaphosa had his own controversies, but was viewed as largely incorruptible. He had risen through the trade unions, served the ANC and built his wealth in the private sector. 

Following Ramaphosa’s election, the extent of state capture emerged through superb investigative journalism.

Politically driven prosecutions fell away, a hugely unpopular nuclear energy deal with Russia was frozen and, as Zuma was being recalled, police cars arrived outside the home of the Gupta family.

And yet, the president refused to leave the Union Buildings quietly, prompting comparisons with Margaret Thatcher. “He was the worst possible combination of ignorance, selfishness and incompetence that could have been inflicted upon the long-suffering people of South Africa,” read an editorial in the Daily Maverick on 13 February. “Now, stripped to the bare essence of being Zuma, the final image emerges, one of the selfish man who cared only for himself.”

Journalist Richard Poplak concluded: “What is born in chaos dies in chaos.”

 Zuma’s departure allows for the rebuilding to begin. The role played by the media, civil society – which found its voice during the Zuma years – and the judiciary (particularly the constitutional court) is being recognised. New president Ramaphosa delivered an inspiring state of the nation address the day after being sworn in.

“You can survive bad leadership, but what you won’t survive is bad institutions,” Mmusi Maimane told me.

There are no delusions over the epic challenges ahead. Unemployment is at 27 per cent (and is much higher for young, black South Africans) and GDP growth is stranded at 1 per cent. However, there is optimism, too: the “lost decade” is over and the Rainbow Nation’s renewal has finally begun. 

This article first appeared in the 22 February 2018 issue of the New Statesman, Sunni vs Shia