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Trump in the UK: Can Britain cancel a state visit?

Because turning out the lights and pretending not be home is, sadly, not an option. 

At the time of writing, the petition to refuse Donald Trump a state visit is at 1.78 million signatures. That’s 17 times over what is required for a petition to be debated in parliament. Despite this large virtual outrage, the UK government has come out firmly against the petition. “The United States is a close ally of the United Kingdom,” Theresa May said at a press conference with the Irish Taoiseach. “We work together across many areas of mutual interest and we have that special relationship between us,” she said. “I have issued that invitation for a state visit for President Trump to the United Kingdom and that invitation stands.”

Despite the fact that Parliament will now debate the state visit on the 20 February, her comments are no huge surprise. May has expressed no intention of rocking the Trump boat.

There seem to be three possible outcomes of this petition:

  1. The visit is cancelled - an unprecedented move
  2. The visit goes ahead with much outrage and protest
  3. The visit is delayed until a less politically sensitive time

The visit is cancelled - an unprecedented move

The key thing to remember here is the logistics of the state visit have yet to be decided. Technically, the invitation could simply be revoked. The likelihood of this is tiny. But in a world where Kanye West is friends with Donald Trump, who knows what could happen?  

“If there is a groundswell of political resistance, and if we continue to see the Crown push back against what they call the ‘premature invitation,’ then May might well have to venture into this uncharted territory,” explains Dr James Morrison, Assistant Professor of International Relations at LSE. “The rule book has essentially been thrown out [with Trump], especially in terms of diplomatic protocol.” A cancelled visit would be very surprising, but not unthinkable.

The implications for the relationship between the US and UK would be serious. For a man who is affronted by a tweet, a public rejection could be disastrous. “If he were to be disinvited, I can imagine him taking it very badly,” says Morrison. “It would significantly adjust the relationship.”

Level of possibility: 4

Level of PR shitstorm: 9

 

The visit goes ahead with much outrage and protest

Could a state visit be cancelled? Yes. Had it ever been or is it likely to be? No.

A Downing Street source told the BBC that cancelling the visit would  be a "populist gesture" and "undo everything" that May had achieved during her stateside visit last week. The visit is set for the summer, and it looks like it will go ahead, especially considering the news that Theresa May knew of Trump’s refugee ban before the visit.

It’s unlikely the anger towards Trump will settle down (is there a point at which racism and an impending dictatorship become less troubling?), meaning the visit would be met with more protests. By this point there’s bound to be a real proficiency to the sign-making.

Level of possibility: 7

Level of PR shitstorm: 8

 

The visit is delayed until a less politically sensitive time

Downing Street is still trying to keep up with the changes Trump is implementing. Earlier this week, conflicting statements were being pushed by Boris Johnson and the US embassy - a sign that the next six months could hold uncertainty. In light of this, it could be legitimate for the UK to suggest postponing the trip, in the hope of Trump's policies mellowing. Alternately, Trump’s office could asses the political atmosphere of his visit, and decide it would be in the US interest to postpone. However, for an egotistical megalomaniac, that seems unlikely.

Morrison agrees. “I think that the most likely outcome is that [the government] might well try to delay and play for time. Perhaps a year hence or more, the visit happens, which would be more conventional. At that point Trump might have settled into a more regular mode of administration.” There is an optimistic possibility too: “Or, if he continues like this perhaps he will be removed from power and impeached.”

Level of possibility: 5

Level of PR shitstorm: 6

 

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Like many others, Dr Hadiza Bawa-Garba was left in charge of a failing aircraft

Ony when enough hospitals shut down, and do so often, will those with true responsibility properly resource the NHS. 

The day Leicester trainee paediatrician Dr Hadiza Bawa-Garba was struck off by the High Court for her involvement in the death of six-year-old Jack Adcock, Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt posted a tweet expressing his deep concern about possible unintended consequences of the ruling. He was referring specifically to the impact on patient safety.

At a stroke, efforts to build a culture of open learning – a cause Hunt champions – had been set back decades. You don’t get people to talk honestly about critical mistakes by threatening them with prison and professional ruin.

There may be other consequences that Hunt didn’t anticipate. Comparisons with another safety-critical industry – aviation – are instructive. On the day Jack died, from undiagnosed sepsis, Bawa-Garba was functioning as would a first officer on an aircraft. The plane’s captain was elsewhere, training other pilots on a simulator in a different city. The chief steward had failed to report for duty, so Bawa-Garba was expected to oversee cabin service as well as fly the plane single-handed.

The aircraft’s IT systems had gone down, meaning one of the stewardesses was permanently occupied looking out of the window to ensure they didn’t collide with anything. Another stewardess was off sick, and her replacement was unfamiliar with the type of plane and its safety systems. And Bawa-Garba herself had just returned from a year’s maternity leave. She’d done quite a lot of flying in the past, though, and the airline clearly believed she could slot straight back into action – they arranged no return-to-work programme, dropping her in at the deep end.

Not one of us would agree to be a passenger on that flight, yet that kind of scenario is commonplace in hospitals throughout the country. Critically ill patients have no awareness of how precarious their care is, and would have no choice about it if they knew. Since the Bawa-Garba ruling, doctors have been bombarding the General Medical Council (GMC) for advice as to what they should do when confronted with similarly parlous working conditions.

The GMC’s response has been to issue a flowchart detailing whom medics should tell about concerns. But it has failed to confirm that doing so would protect doctors should a disaster occur. Nor does it support worried doctors simply refusing to work under unsafe conditions. This is akin to telling the first officer they must inform the airline that things are bad, very bad, but that they still have to fly the plane regardless.

Jeremy Hunt has responded to the crisis by announcing an urgent review into gross negligence manslaughter, the offence of which Bawa-Garba was convicted. This is welcome, and long overdue, but it still serves to retain the focus on individuals and their performance, and keeps attention away from the failing systems that let down doctors and patients daily.

An action by the British Association of Physicians of Indian Origin is, arguably, more important than Hunt’s review. The organisation has written to Leicestershire police requesting that they investigate Bawa-Garba’s hospital trust for alleged corporate manslaughter. I sincerely hope a prosecution follows. I’m no fan of litigation, but change is only going to come when those who manage the NHS know that they are going to carry the can when things go wrong.

We need clear statements of what constitute minimum acceptable staffing levels, both in terms of numbers, and training and experience. When departments, or even whole hospitals, fall below these – or when unexpected problems such as IT failures occur – managers, faced with the real prospect of corporate lawsuits, will close the unit, rather than keep operating in unsafe conditions, as routinely occurs.

Only when enough hospitals shut down, and do so often, will those with true responsibility – Jeremy Hunt and the rest of the Conservative government – finally act to resource the health service properly. 

This would be an unintended consequence from the Dr Bawa-Garba case that would be welcome indeed. 

This article first appeared in the 15 February 2018 issue of the New Statesman, The polite extremist