The Holborn & St Pancras by-election is Andy Burnham’s first real test as Prime Minister. After assuring the public that he would be staying on as an MP until the next general election, Keir Starmer has now decided that he will resign his seat to pursue other roles on the international stage. It won’t be easy for Labour to retain the seat.
Holborn and St Pancras is a Camden constituency. Although London voters lean left, this is not quite Hackney or Islington. Since it was created in 1983, it has always been held by Labour – but before that, it could boast sizeable votes for the Conservatives. Now, with Green leader Zack Polanski running for selection, it is likely to be a two-horse race between Labour and the Green Party. In 2024, left-wing independent candidate Andrew Feinstein performed well, receiving more than 7,000 votes. Feinstein has has announced he will not be standing – but other independent candidates may run, taking votes from either party.
Labour performed poorly in the May London local elections, losing to the Greens in Hackney, Stratford and Lewisham. But in Holborn, the party still managed nine-point lead over the Greens – although it should be noted that the Greens didn’t stand candidates in two of the wards that make up the seat. Had they stood, Labour’s lead would have likely been smaller – my estimate is three points.
The Greens are polling four points lower nationally than they did in May. According to our poll tracker, in London they’re only down two points. Since Burnham was elected, Labour has won tightly fought Green-Labour London council by-elections, but not by huge margins. In an election held today, Britain Predicts gives Labour a five-point lead in Holborn and St Pancras.
But with now Polanski now running as their candidate, the Greens could perform better than expected. Polanski’s score with voters has been on a downward trajectory for months. But his popularity has grown by three points in the last six months among 18- to 34-year-olds. Holborn and St Pancras is a very young seat – nearly 50 per cent of its residents are between 18 and 34, compared to about a quarter nationally. Although some of those are international students, who won’t be voting, this is still a demographic boost for Polanski.
Yet Polanski’s candidacy could also turn out voters against him. He is not just unpopular among right-wingers – according to More in Common he is in the net negative among social liberals and “incrementalist left” voters.
Meanwhile, Burnham polls even better among young voters than Polanski. Framing the campaign around the new leader could boost Labour’s chances. If Labour wins comfortably, the Greens will wonder: do they need a new strategy to win in Burnham’s Britain?
[Further reading: Zack Polanski to run for selection in Holborn and St Pancras]
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