Over the first half of this year I started to become bored with talking about British politics. It became increasingly dull to recite the same lines on repeat: our political system is very fractured; the public has lost faith in politicians; the two traditional main parties are in decline; Reform has topped hundreds of consecutive polls; Keir Starmer is historically unpopular. There were frequent new subplots in the London SW1 soap opera, but the story never altered. The question now is whether the entrance bounce of yet another prime minister has changed those fundamentals, or whether we are still doomed to repeat the same tired tale.
This summer, some things have certainly changed: for the first time in nearly 18 months, Reform has been knocked off first place in the opinion polls. Labour is now leading polling trackers, up an average of six points since Starmer resigned. Crucially, Burnham himself is in positive territory with the public (no mean feat in 2026) and his approval ratings have been moving further in the right direction in his first weeks in office. He is now ahead of every other party leader as the public’s preferred prime minister.
Labour has started to shore up its left flank, and the Green surge that panicked MPs has receded. In Greater Manchester’s mayoral election, Labour won 47.1 per cent of the first-preference vote (double the share it received in the local elections just two months earlier), while the Greens polled 12.2 per cent and the Liberal Democrats fell to 2.8 per cent. Burnham’s by-election win in Makerfield showed an even clearer squeeze, with the Greens and Lib Dems managing barely 1 per cent between them. Taken together, these results offer proof that left-leaning voters are prepared to rally behind Labour to keep Reform out – something they were more reluctant to do under Starmer’s leadership.
There is further good news for Burnham: while the left bloc shows signs of coming together, the right is more fragmented than ever. Nigel Farage may have pulled off a decisive win in Clacton, but it is unlikely to be enough to immediately turn his party’s performance around. Reform’s reversal of fortune predates both Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street and the corruption allegations that have dogged the party and its leader since May. Reform’s polling has been sliding steadily since the start of the year, with voters questioning whether the party is going to be able to deliver the change they are so desperate to see.
Kemi Badenoch’s personal ratings have shown significant improvement over the past 12 months, with voters in focus groups increasingly describing her as “articulate”, “intelligent” and “a leader”. And while her party has made no meaningful progress in the polls, Conservative voters appear to be less willing than they were previously to vote tactically for Reform to stop Labour.
Meanwhile, a third party has entered the fight for the right: Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain. Despite only polling in the low single digits, Restore has made its presence known, and has complicated things for both Reform and the Tories (it finished above the Tories in both Manchester and Makerfield). An apparently credible threat to Reform’s right has prompted some erratic moves, veering between trying to appease those lost to Lowe on the right and newer, more “moderate” parts of Farage’s coalition. All of this provides comfort for Labour, whose 2024 landslide was propelled by a divided right.
Many are now calling for an early election to boost Labour’s chances of winning – something that would have been unthinkable a few months ago. When we asked voters about the biggest differences between Burnham and his predecessor, “personality” and a focus on the public came out the most strongly.
Even Conservative and Reform voters are more likely to call Burnham’s first days as prime minister a success than a failure, and the electorate as a whole is cautiously optimistic about what his premiership could mean for them personally. Our polling shows that 38 per cent of voters think their life will improve under Burnham, compared to 16 per cent who expect it to get worse. Labour and Green voters are overwhelmingly positive on both counts, a slimmer majority of Conservatives agree, and Reform supporters are neutral.Burnham and his team understand that voters want to see change, especially when it comes to their cost of living.
However, the underlying forces behind Britain’s fracturing politics have not gone anywhere. The gap between Burnham’s positive personal ratings and his party’s still-mediocre voting intention numbers echoes the gap between the Conservative Party’s polling and Badenoch’s own. The traditional parties have yet to repair the damage sustained over the past decade, and voters are still sceptical. The decline in Reform’s ratings does not mean voters no longer want to see change – just that they might be losing faith in the idea that Farage’s party will deliver it.
The “Burnham bounce” does not yet constitute an absolute recovery for Labour, and I remain highly doubtful that politics will revert to a more “normal” state. When we asked voters about their biggest worry under a Burnham government, the answer was familiar: broken promises, no real change. If he fails to deliver, Andy Burnham should be under no illusions that his fate will be any different from those of other recent prime ministers who have come and gone on that same broken promise for change.
[Further reading: Will Andy Burnham call an early election?]
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This article appears in the 20 Aug 2026 issue of the New Statesman, Summer Special
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