Nigel Farage has won the Clacton by-election, in a contest boycotted by every other major party. But in the end, even he didn’t turn up.
The Reform leader secured 63 per cent of the vote (22,239 votes total). Count Binface came second, with 27 per cent of the vote (9,455 votes). Turnout was 44 per cent, which is standard for a by-election. The number of votes cast was 35,401.
It may be a victory, and a majority of 12,784 is a large improvement on Farage’s general election margin. But the share of the vote tells a less straightforward story for Reform’s leader. In what was supposed to be a people versus establishment election, Farage only gained 1,014 votes on his general election performance and underperformed the Survation constituency poll, which put him at 73 per cent. Binface won the biggest vote ever for a comedy candidate.
To prove he had more than rallied his base, Farage would have needed 70-plus per cent of the vote, according to our own model and even some Reform tellers outside polling stations. This result suggests the anti-Farage vote was mobilised and tactical even in this Reform heartland – and even behind a novelty opponent.
Speaking hours before the declaration, Farage declared a “convincing and overwhelming win”. After the result, Binface said “against Nigel Farage compared to Andy Burnham, I am 1,000 times more popular. Does that have anything to do with why he isn’t here tonight?”
Since May, Parliament’s standards commissioner has been investigating whether Farage broke MP rules by not declaring a £5m gift sent to him before he had returned to frontline politics. That process has been paused but will continue upon his return to Parliament. If he is suspended for breaking the code of conduct for ten days or over, and if 10 per cent of Clacton voters sign a petition to recall him, then another by-election would take place in the constituency.
In a long and bizarre night, a permanent media mob trailed Count Binface. The atmosphere was warm; 14 of the 34 candidates had joined a WhatsApp group together, called “Clacton Candidates”, and reminisced about teaming up to canvass and going for pints and curry. A few tensions rippled to the surface, however, as Official Monster Raving Looney Party candidates and others had to be moved on by council workers for heckling interviews with Count Binface with shouts of “interview the other candidates!”.
But the jollity subsided fast at about 3.30am, when Nigel Farage – speaking from a Glastonbury-style stage at a nearby airfield full of yurts, “Farage Fest” – announced that he wasn’t going to turn up at all.
“Every time, I’ve really enjoyed going to the count – it’s exciting, it’s dramatic, you’re on the stage, it’s something to be at,” he said to a cheering crowd.
“And I’m sad to say that after 33 years of being a candidate in active politics that I’ve been advised tonight by Essex Police that there is an organised campaign to disrupt and degrade the result that will take place in a few hours’ time.
“And once again it shows you the sheer intolerance, the sheer loss of fundamental democratic principles, that those that went before us fought in world wars to fight for and preserve, and this shows you why the battle that we’re engaged upon in this great party, this great movement of ours, is to get this country back to the values that it needs to be.
“And so I regret to say, and by the way I’m not scared of these people, but I’m damned if I’m going to stand on a stage, having won a resounding victory, a ringing endorsement of all that I’ve tried to fight for and you’ve tried to fight for, and be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies, and I will not sadly be attending the count, which means I’m gonna be here all night!”
Immediately after this announcement, a hassled-seeming Reform spokesperson at the count told confused reporters: “Essex Police advised Nigel not to attend the count tonight due to a credible threat against him.” However, he didn’t give any further details. He claimed this development had come as a surprise to him.
But the New Statesman understands that no candidate had been given specific police advice not to attend the count. And we heard from local sources shortly after the polls closed that staff at a nearby hotel were preparing for a Farage after party, but only if he hadn’t “stayed out all night” at another party, presumably a reference to Farage Fest. Other than GB News, journalists could not enter to ask him questions.
None of the other candidates told us they had been given any advice by Essex Police that there might be trouble – Count Binface’s team confirmed they hadn’t been given a security briefing at all. The NS contacted Essex Police to ask what advice was given, and when, and if any advice had been given to the other candidates, but at the time of writing they did not give answers to these questions. “We have a proportionate and robust policing operation to ensure the safety and security of all participants in the count,” they commented.
We also asked how the security operation at the leisure centre, where the count was held, compared with that of Great Oakley Airfield where Farage’s party had been going since polls closed. A private security firm, Regency Security, was on duty at the count. We asked if it was given any briefing from Essex Police about a threat to Farage or other candidates, but have received no reply at the time of writing.
The returning officer Ian Davidson paused proceedings to tell everyone at the count that “we work closely with Essex Police and have done so throughout this process and continue to do so tonight and will be continuing the count as we always do in a safe and secure manner, and we will continue ’til declaration. And thank you for our staff, visitors, press and public who have conducted themselves in an exemplary way tonight…
“I will not comment on security matters, but I’m going to say to you that working closely with Essex Police, and we’ve just had a further meeting, there is no issue with us completing the count tonight.”
As the early hours wore on, the explanation for Farage’s no-show from Reform appeared to straddle the line that there was a “credible threat” to his safety and his unwillingness to be embarrassed. “Why should Nigel be humiliated and demeaned by some absolute nobodies?” asked the Reform local councillor and spokesperson Jaymey McIvor, who referred to some non-specific “credible, intelligenced information” Farage had received.
A speech Farage was due to give on Clacton Pier the following morning was also cancelled.
[Further reading: Meet Nigel Farage’s true nemesis]
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Subscribe here to comment“33 years of being a candidate in active politics”; Well, hardly ever turning up in either the European Parliament nor the house of Commons,and practically never having shown his face in Clacton, one might wonder about his ‘activity’ in politics. His activity mostly seems to have been making money for nothing and cosying up to others of his ilk.