Donald Trump has renewed his criticism of Keir Starmer. The president is annoyed that the Prime Minister continues to refuse to authorise any further British involvement in the war in Iran unless he deems it to be “in the British national interest”. This time, the dispute centres on sending British warships to the Strait of Hormuz.
But today I want to talk about the Chancellor. This afternoon, Rachel Reeves will set out her latest vision for Britain’s economy in the Mais Lecture at Bayes Business School.
The annual lecture has been delivered by eight of Britain’s 15 chancellors since 1979. Reeves is unique because, as of today, she becomes the only person to deliver the Mais Lecture twice. That gives us a side-by-side comparison of what she was saying last time, as shadow chancellor on the eve of the general election, and what she says now after two years in the Treasury.
Last time, she set out a vision of “securonomics” based on three “prongs” – stability, investment and reform – inspired by the approach of the Biden White House, which at the time was enjoying an annual growth rate Britain could only dream of.
Today, she is expected to lay out three “bets” – as she described them in an interview at the weekend – on the rapid adoption of AI, closer alignment with the EU and regional growth. Critics will hone in on the language of gambling over planning.
But Reeves has not entirely given up on Biden-inspired securonomics, even if it has taken a rhetorical back seat since Trump beat the Democrats in 2024, despite their economic record. Today, she will reiterate the three prongs of her last lecture. Reeves is expected to say, with a nod to the Iran war: “In this changing world, Britain is not powerless. We can shape our own future. Our method is stability, investment and reform – through an active and strategic state.”
The last serving chancellor to deliver the Mais Lecture was Rishi Sunak. That was in early 2022, before he resigned from the government and, in a roundabout way, eventually became prime minister. In his lecture, he promised sustainable tax cuts and “a new culture of enterprise”. It did not really materialise over the following two years. Why? Part of the explanation lies in the fact that Sunak delivered his lecture on the day Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As Reeves speaks amid the Iran crisis and talk of fuel rationing in Britain, she will be determined not to let history repeat itself.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[Further reading: The rise of the undecided voter]
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