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2 March 2026

The perils of “defensive” action for Starmer

The war with Iran could make the Prime Minister’s problems worse

By Ethan Croft

The Ministry of Defence has said this morning that RAF Akrotiri was hit late last night with a suspected drone but reported no casualties, adding the base has sustained only “minimal damage”.

The UK seems to be getting drawn into this war, even though Keir Starmer has insisted British forces will only help with defensive, not offensive, operations.

This is another problem for the Prime Minister to deal with, but it’s more than that, too. This war, if it drags on – as Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are indicating it will – is likely to exacerbate several issues the PM already faces.

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A spike in oil prices – already measurable with a 10 per cent increase in Brent crude – could push up inflation and knock the government’s economic plans off course. Increasing British involvement could provoke unrest among Labour MPs, who are already darkly comparing the legality of the events over the past few days with the Iraq War. Labour, if it is seen to be involved with a Trump-led war of choice, could lose further electoral support to its left flank. These may seem parochial concerns today, but the collision of foreign and domestic will soon become unavoidable.

We thought the theme of Boris Johnson’s premiership would be levelling up, then Covid-19 struck. We thought Tony Blair’s second term would be focused on public-sector reform, then two passenger jets hit the World Trade Center. Will this war be the thing that defines Starmer’s premiership?

This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here

[Further reading: Can Keir Starmer avoid the mistakes of Iraq?]

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