It’s a cold Thursday morning in January on a suburban street corner in Burnage, in the western part of the constituency of Gorton and Denton. A gaggle of men and women are huddled together, handing out clipboards and party literature. This is Labour’s campaign to hold the seat in the February by-election. The activists start working their way down the terraces, knocking doors and greeting voters. Meanwhile, Green activists are travelling down the other side of the street, making loud barbs to their Labour opponents. The Green leaflets have a big chart that argues they are in second place, the party to beat Reform. The leaflets also a mention Andy Burnham, whose absence voters keep bringing up on the doorstep.
A Gorton and Denton resident is holding both Labour and Green leaflets. “Who am I meant to believe?” she asks.
The Labour Party is scrambling for activists to see off Reform at a by-election battle that could have been a lot easier. The Britain Predicts forecast has Nigel Farage’s party currently beating Keir Starmer’s by a few thousand votes. If Burnham were on the Labour ticket, polling suggests, Labour would have enjoyed a comfortable victory. But Burnham is so popular with the public, and connects so well to both Reform-curious and left-leaning voters, that Labour could only block him from standing.
So Gorton and Denton will be a closely fought race. And Labour isn’t just being challenged by Reform. Current polls suggest a fifth of the voting public in Gorton and Denton would vote Green. The data is a bit unclear: the erratic Electoral Calculus projections has the Greens ahead of Labour, while an MRP projection puts them behind. Either way, the Green performance in this contest could be the difference between a Reform or Labour win.
But what about a Green win? Since Zack Polanski began leading the party, inner-city English seats have become a lot more open to the Greens. And the lesson from Plaid Cymru’s victory in the Caerphilly by-election is that the best party to beat Reform is not necessarily the party polling in first or second place. Labour insiders tell me their failure in Caerphilly was letting the narrative be defined for them, not by them.
In the run-up to the Caerphilly contest, Plaid Cymru’s national media and leaflet strategy was to emphasise that the next election would be a fight between themselves and Reform. Plaid owned the air war, and voters decided Labour was not relevant any more if they wanted to keep Reform out. Labour is determined not to repeat this Caerphilly trap. The party has printed tens of thousands of leaflets, like the Greens, using a chart to argue that they are the party to beat Reform.
The Greens face an uphill battle to win this seat. In areas with a high Muslim population such as Longsight and Levenshulme and Burnage, the Greens should perform well. But Britain Elects ward data – analysing the performance of parties relative to certain demographic indicators including housing, age, ethnicity and education – finds the Greens would do well in three of the seven wards, whereas Reform would likely overperform its national share in five.
The wards where Reform should do well typically have a lower turnout. However, Farage’s party has invigorated some previously dormant voters. For example, Denton has almost almost 50 per cent of the seat’s potential voters, but in local elections counts for just 30 per cent of turnout. However, Britain Predicts suggests it will account for nearly voters in the coming by-election.
Some strategists suggest the Greens should focus on winning the pro-Gaza vote. Some 58 per cent of Pakistani and Bangladeshi Britons today have a favourable view of the Greens (compared to 31 per cent for Labour). The Greens have a 17-point advantage over Labour with Pakistani and Bangladeshi Britons, who make up a quarter of Gorton and Denton’s total population (not voters). Most of these live in Gorton.
Denton, on the other hand, is overwhelmingly white and working-class. This is dangerous for the Green Party, which polls ten points worse among working class voters than it does upper and middle.
To secure victory, the Greens need to do three things. First, they must eviscerate Labour in the parts of the constituency that have a greater Muslim population. They also need to nullify the narrative that Labour can beat Reform. Third, they have to compete in Reform-friendly areas.
If Labour falls far enough, and the Reform surge is underwhelming, the Greens have a chance at winning. I wouldn’t bet on it, though.
[Further reading: Inside Labour’s plan to win Gorton and Denton]
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Subscribe here to commentSo the likely outcomes are that Labour wins, or that the Greens hand the seat to Reform. Green-curious voters should bear that in mind.