For an unpopular government, special educational needs reform is treacherous territory. “If Keir Starmer messes this up, I think from the Labour Party perspective that will be the last straw,” Ed Davey told me back in September – and plenty on the government benches agreed with him.
The current system is, by any measure, broken: state spending has risen by 59 per cent in real terms over the last decade but outcomes for children with Send have not improved. Only 8 per cent of those who finished primary school in 2022-23 achieved the expected level of reading, writing and maths, the same number as 2016-17.
Local councils have accumulated a deficit totalling £3.2bn, one forecast to widen to £14bn by March 2028. But precisely because of the number of children involved – nearly 20 per cent now receive Send support – reform risks triggering a revolt.
This is a government that already knows the cost of that: winter fuel payment cuts were all but abandoned and are now regarded by MPs and voters alike as Labour’s “original sin”. The welfare bill never even passed the Commons, costing Rachel Reeves £5bn and toxifying future attempts at disability benefit reform.
The task of avoiding a sequel has fallen to Bridget Phillipson (who will publish the new schools white paper today). For two reasons, she can be hopeful of avoiding a welfare-style revolt.
First, rather than simply making a fiscal case for reform, the Education Secretary has made a moral one. As she recently told my colleague Pippa Bailey (read her excellent profile here), she believes that children with Send are best supported within mainstream schools, alongside their peers, rather than specialist ones (Starmer writes movingly of the case of his late brother today). £4bn of new money will be made available for this purpose while children with less complex needs will have their support reviewed.
Second, instead of rushing through reform, Phillipson paused when a revolt was brewing in September. Even Labour sceptics concede that the process has been a model of consultation compared to the haphazard welfare cuts. Phillipson has learned from that experience and, allies say, from her own 2024 schools bill which saw her branded a “Marxist” wrecker after too little was done to prepare the ground.
This time round, the early signs are encouraging. Andy Burnham, not someone renowned for praising the government, has said Phillipson is “right to face up to the need for reform, right to take a careful approach and right about the need to replace a highly fragmented system with a more integrated model”.
A year ago Phillipson appeared marginalised as her school reforms faced both internal and external resistance (with now-departed No 10 policy director Liz Lloyd among her opponents). But critically as rumours of her sacking swirled, she retained the confidence of Starmer throughout.
Though Phillipson went on to lose the deputy leadership to Lucy Powell – albeit by a narrower margin than most predicted – she could take most credit for the subsequent abolition of the two-child benefit cap. If Phillipson can rescue Send, succeeding where so many others have refused to try, she will be remembered as one of this government’s most substantial reformers.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[Further reading: Eluned Morgan: Labour’s last first minister?]
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