Every outfit that Nigel Farage has led has been a Nigel Farage outfit, nothing more, nothing less. Anyone and everyone of sizeable personality, reach with the public, or an ego of their own has gone on to either leave his parties in protest, disgust, or rage. Think Robert Kilroy Silk joining Ukip, getting a seat, and then leaving in a huff to form his own outfit. Think also of David Campbell Bannerman, one time leadership rival annoyed at how Farage hogged all the media, who went back to the Conservatives after a few years as an MEP. Think of Mike Nattrass, Suzanne Evans, Douglas Carwell, Rupert Lowe and Ben Habib. The history of Farage is painted with bruised egos.
But is Robert Jenrick too big a beast to be so easily bruised? Will he be the first Reform MP strong enough alone to establish some kind of political or intellectual independence from Farage?
The thing you need to know about Jenrick at Reform is that he doesn’t necessarily broaden the party’s appeal. Rather, he cements it. Those voters who feel favourable towards Jenrick are, for the most part, those already settled on voting Reform.
Jenrick’s individual favourability ratings are not great. Asked which politicians, “speak up for Britain’s right”, fewer respondents were “favourable” to Jenrick than to Kemi Badenoch, and more than double were favourable to Farage.
What Jenrick’s defection might do is harm the Tories, and arrest what advantage Kemi Badenoch has been eking out in recent months. She had enjoyed something of a bounce since her fiery performance at the Budget showdown in November last year.
But before that, Jenrick was seen as the Conservatives’s hard-line right-winger. In October last 2024, both Conservative and Reform voters are more enthusiastic about Jenrick than Badenoch as an opponent to Starmer.
Whether all this still stands is yet to be seen. But the move splits the right further. A great many Tory members and parliamentarians who were in his camp may take this as the moment to move too. Already Conservative associations in some parts of the north are reportedly sparse, be it in sections of County Durham or mid Lancashire. What was a steady trickle of Tory members could soon become a flow, because the man who 46 per cent of Tory members (opposed to 24 per cent for Badenoch Badenoch supporters) wanted as next Prime Minister… has moved to Reform.
[Further reading: Jenrickism has arrived]
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