Robert Jenrick is the latest Tory politician to defect to Reform. He is one of 18 former or sitting Conservative Party parliamentarians – in Westminster, the Senedd or the Scottish Parliament – to have defected to Reform since the last general election. Some have gone on to greatness (citation needed), such as Andrea Jenkyns, who swept up the mayoralty of Lincolnshire without so much as a recount. Others, like Jonathan Gullis, have muddied their own waters and reputation by publicly swearing off defecting, only to defect.
Of the 18 to make the move, 11 would see their seats, current or former, vote Reform in an election held today. The party’s head of policy Zia Yusuf has promised Reform members that no “failed politician” would be given an easy run to a Reform seat. Yet it’s not hard to follow the logic. Reform is their route to winning again. When polls show between 40 per cent and 50 per cent of the Tory base would countenance voting Reform in select circumstances, the jump becomes easier. Back the winning horse, not the one 10 points behind.
So, who are they?
Andrew Rosindell
More conservative than most Conservatives, Rosindell’s defection feels a long time coming. Of all the MPs rumoured to be flirting with Ukip in the 2010s, he was often the bookies’ favourite to defect. His seat, Romford, was one of the few Tory gains of the 2001 Labour landslide, after a campaign targeting right-wing voters. Romford is very much Rosindell country. Britain Predicts currently says Reform would only win it by a few percentage points. With Rosindell as the candidate, it might be anything but marginal.
Robert Jenrick
The defection of Jenrick, the Tory members’ favoured replacement for Kemi Badenoch (at least as of October 2025), was rumoured months prior, but only announced in early January by Tory staffers allegedly spotting “conclusive proof” of his intentions to depart and do maximum damage to the party operation. Badenoch was quick to respond. She suspended his membership and withdrew the whip – all heralded through the kind of laptop video you’d see in a battleground bunker. And Farage, confronted with the news at a press conference in Scotland, could only pause to grin.
Jenrick has a national profile. Rather than widen the Reform appeal, he would entrench it. As to whether his ego can coexist with his new party leader’s however is yet to be seen. Farage has history of being the big fish in a small pond, and keeping it that way. Jenrick could disrupt that.
Nadhim Zahawi
Defected in early January. Until 2024 Zahawi represented Stratford-on-Avon, a seat not in the least favourable to Reform’s advance. Reform polled 15 per cent before. Our model says it would poll 17 per cent today. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, would eke out a second win in the area. For a man who has spent the past decade peppering his Twitter feed with condemnation of everything and everything Farage did, there is no way to write this up, but: an odd defection.
Ben Bradley
Bradley, one of the few Tories to gain from Labour in 2017, represented Mansfield in Nottinghamshire until 2024. His was a seat that was devoutly for Leave in 2016, and would poll exceedingly well for Reform today, at 44 per cent to just 13 per cent for the Conservatives. He joined Reform in December 2025.
Lia Nici
Though she’s not such a familiar face in the House of Commons, Nici took Great Grimsby off the back of Boris Johnson’s “Get Brexit done” coalition in 2019 only to lose it five years later. Grimsby today, though, would see the Conservatives fall to just 7 per cent, whereas Reform would win by a canter, with 53 per cent.
Jonathan Gullis
Gullis’s former seat Stoke-on-Trent North, for which he now part represents as a co-opted parish councillor, went Conservative with 26 per cent to Reform’s 24 per cent at the last election (the seat went to Labour). Now, it’s forecast to go Reform 47 per cent, with just 9 per cent for the Conservatives.
Chris Green
Green represented Bolton West from 2019 through to 2024, winning it handily from an invisible Labour campaign. The Conservatives, however, have since faded from view there. Today they would poll 9 per cent in Bolton West, compared with 42 per cent for Reform.
Maria Caulfield
Caulfield moved over to Reform during party conference season in September 2025. She formerly represented Lewes in Sussex, which then went Lib Dem in the 2024 general election. Reform’s chances there are worse than slim.
Danny Kruger
The man some in the media have billed as the brains behind a potential Farage government. Kruger represents a part of Wiltshire that would not, however, convincingly go Reform’s way. In an election held now, it would be one of fewer than 100 seats to stay Conservative – though his new party wouldn’t be too far behind. If Kruger aspired for office in the post-Labour world, East Wiltshire wouldn’t be the surest of foundations. Perhaps this is a defecting parliamentarian not after their own seat, but any seat.
Nadine Dorries
Dorries once flirted with joining Ukip while on I’m a Celebrity… in 2012. She had the whip suspended and Farage entertained the idea publicly. But it took her until September 2025 to make the jump. Her Mid Bedfordshire seat would vote Reform today, but only with 33 per cent of the vote. Certainly not nailed on.
Graham Simpson
Here’s a parliamentarian not of the Westminster parish, but the Holyrood. He sits for the Central Scotland region, which would see a sizeable enough vote to have him re-elected as a Reform candidate. The party’s appeal in Scotland is way ahead of what Ukip’s was. Simpson defected in August 2025.
Adam Holloway
Gravesham is north Kent. And if you had to make a sweeping generalisation about Reform-friendly areas, north Kent is it. Reform pulled in a respectable fifth of the public vote in Gravesham in 2024. It would win 36 per cent today. Holloway was defeated by Labour last time out, and joined Reform a year and a few weeks later.
Laura Anne Jones
Representing South Wales East in the Senedd – the most Tory-friendly region in Wales – Jones has no doubt seen the direct transfer of Conservative support to Reform in the Monmouthshire and surrounding counties. Were she top of the list in her former region, or any of the constituencies now covering it, she would win handily. Jones defected in July 2025.
Jake Berry
Berry, who once claimed that David Cameron had a Tory lackey cut off his crusts for him, represented the Lancashire seat of Rossendale and Darwen for the 2010s, only losing it in the election just gone. He joined Reform in July 2025.
Of all the mid-Lancashire seats, however, Rossendale is one of the least Reform-friendly. The party might run away with it in neighbouring Hyndburn or Burnley, but in Rossendale Reform would eke out a win – but not by much over Labour.
Anne Marie Morris
Morris moved to Reform, also in July 2025. She represented Newton Abbott in Devon, a seat safely Lib Dem yesterday, today and tomorrow. Reform would poll 23 per cent here, compared with 22 per cent for the Conservatives.
Ross Thomson
Ross Thomson was one of many Tory gainers of the 2017 general election in Scotland. He represented Aberdeen South for a short period, until 2019. He joined Reform a month after the party’s clear victory in the English local elections. Aberdeen is not Reform-friendly. It polls 13 per cent today. The Tories do better with 24 per cent.
David Jones
North Wales is always more Reform than you think. At least, the closer you get to the English border. Jones represented a part of Conwy county. His constituency at the last election, Clwyd West, was carved up, with Clwyd North one of its offspring. Clwyd North would vote Reform, but only with 27 per cent of the vote. The seat making up Connah’s Quay, on the English border, however, polls at 35 per cent for Reform. Jones is a former minister, and defected in January 2025.
Marco Longhi
Marco Longhi was a big beast in Dudley, polling not far behind the victorious Labour candidate in 2024. His was a seat that could, feasibly, have held off the Labour assault. But his vote, badly split by Reform, wasn’t enough to win the day. Today, though, Dudley is not forecast to return to the Tories. Instead, the numbers suggest it will go 51 per cent to Reform, and just 10 per cent to Conservative. Not even six months after losing, Longhi made the move in January 2025.
Andrea Jenkyns
Rewarded with the Lincolnshire mayoralty, Jenkyns was the first former Tory parliamentarian to make the jump following the general election. There were expectations long before that she would defect, so her move in November 2024 wasn’t a surprise. Her Leeds seat was once Ed Balls’s, but today it would go Reform with 44 per cent – with Labour far behind.
[Further reading: Is there a strategy behind Kemi’s Jenrick purge?]
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