Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922. Keir Hardie – the party’s co-founder – won his first parliamentary seat as an Independent Labour Party candidate in Merthyr Tydfil in the south Wales valleys in October 1900 and 99 years later, the party took control of the first administration of the Welsh Parliament (the Senedd), a position it has held ever since. Wales is Labour territory.
But according to the most recent polling by YouGov of Welsh voters, that is set to change on 7 May. Plaid Cymru – which translates as the party of Wales – is soaring ahead on 37 per cent, with Reform coming in behind on 23 per cent. The Greens take third place with 14 per cent. Meanwhile, Labour are projected to win just 10 per cent of the vote, slashing their Senedd majority and pushing them out of government.
It would mean a reduction for Welsh Labour from 29 seats in the Senedd to just eight. There is some resignation among Labour MPs about losing Wales. One told the New Statesman, “it’s not healthy for any party to be in government for two decades”. But they are aware of the significance of a collapsing vote in a major heartland. Another described the most recent polling as “grim”.
Whether Labour’s losses are as extreme as this latest polling predicts, it is almost certain that the party will no longer be the largest party in the Senedd. Instead, the run up to this election has now become a two-horse race – between Plaid Cymru and Reform; both are battling it out for control of the Welsh Assembly.
This has not always been the case. For most of 2025, the two parties were consistently polling neck-a-neck, with Reform occasionally surging ahead (in September, Plaid Cymru polled on 30 per cent, to Reform’s 29 per cent). But since the Caerphilly by-election in October last year, Plaid Cymru have begun to surge ahead. This polling is the latest confirmation; though internally the party is treating it with an air of caution.
At a press conference on 13 January, before the results of this new polling had been released, the party’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, told journalists: “we take nothing for granted at this point. But we can see what the opinion polls are saying; they are saying that this is possible, that change is possible”.
Caerphilly was a turning point. Even senior figures within Plaid Cymru were not convinced the party would win until the result was announced. Reform had poured ample public resources into the campaign. When Farage visited the constituency, helicopters swirled over the town and much of the coverage of the campaign placed the party out in front. Yet on the day, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle beat Reform’s Llŷr Powell by 10 per cent of the vote, with 47.4 per cent to Reform’s 36 per cent.
Plaid Cymru insiders suggest that emerging toxicity around Nigel Farage’s insurgent party could explain Reform’s poor performance. It probably didn’t help in September the campaign Nathan Gill – Reform’s former leader in Wales – pleaded guilty to a Russia-linked bribery charge. Some have suggested this soured the party’s standing with voters in Caerphilly.
Others have suggested the move towards Plaid Cymru is part of a wider “juggernaut of change” which is currently sweeping the UK, whereby voters are backing alternative parties in order to make their desire for change known. Liz Saville Roberts, the leader of Plaid Cymru in the House of Commons told the New Statesman, “this sensational poll from ITV Wales confirms what we are hearing on the doorstep. This is now a straight two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform, and the momentum for change is real.” She added: “The juggernaut of change is with Plaid Cymru at the moment, but we know we have a duty to deliver real, tangible improvements to people’s lives if we are to retain that support.”
But Saville Roberts echoed Iorwerth’s caution, telling the NS that even if Plaid Cymru enjoys the wide success in May it is currently being predicted to, it will still face an uphill battle. She said any party which goes into the next Senedd government will have to “deal with the fact” that it will be vulnerable to a wider drive for change among the public.
That means her party needs to be prepared to win, but also prepared to govern. Plaid Cymru is currently taking lessons on the “hard reality” of government from its sister party, the SNP. Iorwerth visited the Scottish First Minister, John Swinney, in Edinburgh at the end of October.
The Welsh Greens too have been galvanised by this polling. The 13 January poll projected that they could win 11 seats in the Senedd. The party currently has none. In response to the new poll, Anthony Slaughter, the leader of the Welsh Greens said: “The prospect of overtaking Labour in the Senedd is exciting.” He added: “It’s clear that Greens could hold the balance of power, putting us in a position to make the next government braver, and deliver the bold changes we’re talking about.”
The Greens have not ruled out working alongside Plaid Cymru, nor have they explicitly agreed to. But if current polls are to be believed, the possibility of a Plaid-Green alliance in the Senedd is not off the table. Internally, Plaid Cymru are said to view the Greens as being easier to work with than the Labour party (and some insiders view the prospect of working with the Labour party as taking away from the significance of a Plaid victory).
With fifteen weeks to go before voters head to the polls, the battle lines of this election are being firmly drawn. But one reality is becoming starkly clear: a century of Welsh Labour ascendancy is already drawing to a close.
[Further reading: The battle for Labour’s leadership has already started]
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