Andrew Gwynne has announced he is resigning as an MP, triggering a by-election in the north west seat of Gorton and Denton. Westminster is getting very excited that this could be the moment a Labour leadership contest is triggered.
“Wes will want to move quickly, before Andy comes back,” a minister said as the news broke. The by-election provides a potential route back to parliament for Andy Burnham, who needs to be an MP before challenging Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. If Wes Streeting, or any other aspiring leader, wants to get ahead of that, they will need to move before the by-election was held – hence the sudden frenetic energy that has taken hold in SW1.
But first there’s the question of whether Andy Burnham will be selected as Labour’s candidate. The by-election candidate shortlist is selected by a sub-committee of Labour’s ruling body, the National Executive Committee (NEC), who then put the shortlist to the local constituency Labour party (CLP).
Figures on the NEC point to a recent update to Labour’s rulebook, which states: “Directly Elected Mayors and Police and Crime Commissioners must seek the express permission of the NEC/SEC/WEC (as applicable) before seeking nomination as Labour candidates for the Westminster Parliament. The NEC/SEC/WEC’s decision shall be final.” It is unclear whether Burnham, as mayor of Greater Manchester, will receive permission from the party to stand given this rule.
If Burnham stood down, he would trigger yet another election for his replacement as Greater Manchester mayor. Labour figures are expressing concerns about the expense, not to the party, but to local government which would have to cover the cost of holding an additional mayoral election. When that could be spent on local services, they argue it would be a hard sell to voters.
NEC members seeking to prevent a Burnham return have also said they could use various other excuses to decide not to place Burnham on their shortlist, from gender balance to him being insufficiently local to an area. There isn’t gender parity among Labour MPs, and some are arguing that the party needs to prioritise that. It also isn’t guaranteed that local Labour members would opt for Burnham rather than, for example, a local councillor on the shortlist.
But Burnham allies have scoffed at the idea of him being blocked by the leadership. “If Andy went on TV and said, ‘I want to stand to be the MP for that seat,’ would Keir or Morgan really have the political power to stop him?” an ally asks.
Others around the Manchester mayor have long argued that the vocal support of Labour MPs will be crucial at this stage. “The PLP needs to show its hand,” one said, arguing MPs will need to call for Burnham’s return to make it harder to block him.
And after all that, there’s another consideration: could Burnham, or any Labour candidate, actually win a by-election? There is no “safe” Labour seat right now, given Labour’s national polling position. Gwynne’s Gorton and Denton 13,413 (36.7 per cent) majority would be wiped out by Reform, according to the latest MRP polling. That’s a lot of uncertainties before the “King over the water” can make his return…
Trade unions and MPs are already arguing that blocking Burnham from standing as Labour’s by-election candidate would be a “democratic outrage”. Fire Brigades Union general secretary Steve Wright said: “the FBU will not stand by and allow senior Labour politicians like Andy to be carved out of this process. Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection.”
Burnham, for now, is staying silent.
[Further reading: Andy Burnham’s plan for Britain]
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