According to the polls, if a general election was held today, then Nigel Farage would be prime minister. Reform is more than ten points clear of Labour or the Conservatives, making its leader a seemingly destined for high office.
At least, on paper.
New research from More in Common paints a half-feasible scenario that could seriously upend these expectations. Reform is clear of all other parties – but it’s only on 29 per cent. That leaves it vulnerable to mass tactical voting by a progressive alliance, which would deny the right-wing party a majority in the Commons.
In the Caerphilly by-election, Reform polled 36 per cent, as forecast. But the scale of tactical voting for Plaid Cymru was unexpected. The Welsh nationalist party soaked up the Labour vote, allowing the former to steal the election from Reform. Repeat that at a national level and maybe Reform could be stopped.
The More in Common research suggests if 60 per cent of progressive-minded voters voted tactically, progressive parties could mount a majority in the Commons. It would be precarious. It wouldn’t, I expect, be permanent. But it would be the beginning of something new, something that I suspect would mandate immediate electoral reform. It’s not a massive reach to say that if this happened, we might be living under the second-to-last parliament elected under first-past-the-post.
A degree of national tactical voting is extremely likely in 2029. It has happened in previous by-elections and general elections. But the More in Common research would entail tactical voting on a scale unseen in British political history. It would mean asking more than six in ten progressives to vote for parties other than their first preference. How probable is this?
Tribal loyalty is dying. We are less loyal to parties than we’ve ever been. Almost six in ten of us do not trust either of the (until now) two main parties to manage the economy. Labour increasingly borrows votes from people who just want to beat a worse option. That’s not new – the Lib Dems have been benefitting from tactical voting for years – but it’s becoming more prominent.
But there’s another problem for Labour: progressive radicalisation. In theory, Labour should be the primary beneficiary of a progressive alliance. It remains the largest progressive party in England, although not in Wales or Scotland (as SNP staffers are often quick to remind me). However, the Labour brand has a toxicity that an increasing numbers of progressives are unwilling to associate themselves with.
Take Green voters. They are the least willing of all progressives to plump for Labour in a tactical voting contest right now – something Labour learned to its detriment in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. This is understandable: Labour is in government and its approval sits at the sort of depths only Liz Truss could match. At the start of 2025, 55 per cent of Green voters said in a hypothetical Reform vs Labour contest they would vote Labour. Now only 46 per cent say they would, and the Green vote has almost tripled. Labour fares better with Lib Dems, 57 per cent of whom say they would back Labour over Reform.
The truth is Labour, in its current state, isn’t an attractive enough vehicle for progressive-minded people to back in the numbers needed to see off Reform.
I suspect it will get worse. The growing prominence of the Green’s leader, Zack Polanski, and his party’s growing popularity is unlikely to soften progressive anger towards Starmer and Labour. It will do the opposite. The more popular an insurgent party, the more determined it is to win in its own right. Indeed, the Greens tried this in Runcorn and Helsby, pumping out thousands of leaflets saying, “It’s us vs Reform.” (They finished fourth.)
Moreover, respondents in polls tend to say they’ll do something (like turn out to vote in an election) and then not actually do it. So you’d be forgiven for thinking these tactical voting numbers are an overestimate, not a likely estimate.
The conclusion? Tactical voting, right now, is not likely to be great enough to save a party as currently toxic as Labour.
To beat Reform, two things need to happen. Firstly, progressive voters must know who, really, is the best option for them. This is harder to work out now Labour sits third in the opinion polls. Secondly, Labour needs to up its image (and delivery, perhaps) to those on its left flank. Happy New Year, Sir Keir. Good luck with that.
[Further reading: Would net-zero migration make Britain richer or poorer?]
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