Far be it from me to admit when I might be wrong, but I fear I’ve spent much of 2025 writing off Kemi Badenoch.
Introducing the Badenoch Bounce, a polling phenomenon that is starting to materialise in more ways than just a minor personal boost for her.
The modest bounce comes off the back of a well choreographed Commons performance in the face of the Rachel Reeves budget. The day before the budget Badenoch’s ratings were 20 per cent positive, 43 per cent negative. A year prior they were… also 20 per cent positive, but 32 per cent negative.
Now they’re 23 per cent positive, and 41 per cent negative. A small bounce for Badenoch, bigger among some pollsters, but the Britain Elects tracker, which accounts for all published surveys, is, I’m unashamed to say, the more definitive summation of the public mood.
It would be remiss, however, of the SW1 parish to excitedly write up the Leader of the Opposition’s prospects on these numbers alone, because in isolation they are meagre stuff. What’s more interesting and has gone unreported is how the Conservative brand, relegated in the face of the Reform insurgency, is, nonetheless, not dead yet.
There’s two bits of data I want to mention.
The first is something I’ve discussed before – best party on the economy. In 2015 Ed Miliband was nowhere near leading on this, and suffered accordingly. Only after 2022 did Labour gain an advantage over the Tories on the subject. Now the Tories are in the lead again, this time by three points, up from zero in July, and Labour is polling as bad on the issue as under Jeremy Corbyn at the end of 2019.
When pollsters prompts which leader would best handle the economy, Starmer’s Labour does worse. Whereas the Labour brand is declining and falling, Starmer’s is in the gutter.
The other data point I want to show you is more conjecture. But it’s interesting.
Most Britons are willing to admit they are currently choosing between two or more parties right now. Voting intention displays what those who are certain have settled on. That has its limitations. Sometimes it’s better to ask “tick however many of these parties you are seriously thinking of voting.” That question shows a ceiling of sorts. And this data from Ipsos shows just that.
Thirty-six per cent of Britons tell the pollster they are giving serious thought to voting Reform at the next election. That’s not far from the 30 per cent they’re currently polling.
32 per cent meanwhile say the same for the Conservatives, which is 14pts more than the number that is certain to vote for them. There’s your eye-opener.
Whereas Labour’s ceiling of support right now is significantly below what it got in 2024, the Tory ceiling is 10pts higher. In normal times I would forgive you for arguing this is an inevitability of an unpopular government: the electoral pendulum swinging the other way. But we are not in normal times. And so while Reform and Nigel Farage sit as the preeminent party of the right, it would be remiss to say Britain’s Grand Old Party is a write off.
It’s here that I am reminded of the Badenoch performance in the Commons. Focus grouped or not, it chimed with the public. And “news at 6” connoisseurs would note her “best bits” led the way in shaping the Budget fallout. She had a free hit, got a free hearing, and the public lapped it up. It was one of those rare moments where what was said in the Chamber of Green Benches broke through.
Which brings us to our lesson. Badenoch’s failing is not necessarily impotence in the face of our new political climate, rather, it’s not getting the time to be heard. Such a shame for her, then, that elections aren’t won at PMQs.
The Conservative brand, down and out though it is, is not without opportunity. Forecast to fall to 50 seats or less in an election now, that fate can be staved off if the the brand is made relevant once again.
The challenge, therefore, for the Conservatives, is obvious: relevance. Brand Badenoch, marginally, is starting to show the way.
[Further reading: MPs revolt as Labour ditches more Rayner reforms]
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