How far is the Prime Minister willing to go to win voters from the Green Party? All the way to Brazil, apparently. Despite telling journalists for weeks that he wouldn’t be attending Cop30, the latest United Nations climate change conference, on Monday No 10 confirmed that Keir Starmer would in fact be part of the UK delegation. It begins in Belém next month. The reason given by No 10 for Starmer’s decision to attend is that “net zero is the economic opportunity of the 21st century”.
This 9,000-mile trip is likely intended to be a signal that the PM is still committed to tackling climate change. His announcement comes at a tense political moment for Labour. The government has little over a month before a tricky autumn Budget and, amid a surge in support for Zack Polanski’s eco-populism, the latest YouGov polling has the Greens into the double digits (they are on 15 per cent, behind Labour on 20 per cent). There have also been warnings from members of Starmer’s own cabinet that, under the government’s current trajectory, it is at more risk of losing support to its left than to its right.
But what this change of plan from the PM misses (if its intention is to show off his eco-credentials) is that voters are not floating away from Labour and towards Polanski’s Greens because of climate change. In his public performances since becoming party leader, Polanski has slated billionaires, called for a wealth tax, and described Nigel Farage as a fascist. It is his populism and attacks on inequality that are drawing disillusioned left-wingers to the Greens: more than 60,000 have become party members since Polanski was elected in early September (more than the Liberal Democrats’ total number of members).
Supporters seem to be attracted to the Greens not because they feel Labour has abandoned them on the climate, but because of the perceived rightward shift of the party leadership (this also explains the popularity of Your Party). Starmer has already proved his credentials as an eco-conscious PM. He doesn’t eat meat, has consistently backed Ed Miliband’s clean power mission (despite a recent blip in which the Energy Secretary was almost reshuffled), and is in charge of the first UK government to cancel all new oil and gas licences. Sustainability is an area in which this government is performing well.
Even if none of that were true, Cop is no longer the best arena for tangible action on climate. Both of the two previous conferences were hosted by petro-states, and it is widely accepted that the 1.5°C target set in Paris at Cop21 (in which global average temperatures are limited to less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) is likely to be breached. (Experts have branded this year’s conference potentially the most significant since 2015.) It is also the first since Donald Trump withdrew the US (the world’s second-largest polluter) from the Paris Climate Agreement once again, weakening its significantly. And, as energy-sector insiders have told me, the UN’s annual climate summit is attended by more lobbyists and corporate delegates than ever. It was reported last year that the chief executive of Cop29, Elnur Soltanov, used the Azerbaijan conference to discuss “investment opportunities” in the country’s state oil and gas company.
Two Labour councillors in Swindon announced their defection to the Greens on Wednesday morning. Three defected from Labour to the Greens in Barking & Dagenham last month. Starmer will need more than a trip across the Atlantic to hold off this Green threat.
[Further reading: Zack Polanski shows off his pulling power]
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