Nigel Farage may be quietly seething that his big moment in the spotlight for the start of the Reform UK conference has been snatched away by Keir Starmer’s post-Rayner reshuffle. But it also marks the high point of his influence from outside on government so far.
Yvette Cooper had put in insanely long hours as Home Secretary and tried every legal root a natural progressive could think of to stop illegal migration by boat. You could see the strain etched in her face as the boats kept coming, despite changes to the law, despite extra spending on border forces, despite the deal with France.
So Starmer is trying a more radical approach by appointing Shabana Mahmood as Cooper’s replacement, after changes which make his government one of the most female ever – all the main offices of state, beyond his own, are now held by women. Cooper replaces David Lammy as Foreign Secretary.
Mahmood is one of the most robust politicians on the Labour benches, with a no-nonsense approach and a deep understanding of the damage being done to the government by the perception of a lack of grip. As Justice Secretary, Mahmood took fast, difficult, radical decisions to deal with prison overcrowding. If there is anybody who will look afresh at migration, international treaties, ID cards and swift removals, she is the person.
This is, let’s be clear, a shift to the right in response to the surge in support for Reform. Maurice Glasman, the founder of Blue Labour, has described her as “now clearly the leader of our part of the party”. What Keir Starmer can’t do is pretend otherwise. This is his choice, replying to Farage, and after so many months of obfuscation, he must boldly proclaim, explain and defend it.
In a similar vein, the expansion of Pat McFadden’s responsibilities to cover work, pensions and skills suggests a new drive for growth from one of the toughest Blairites in public life. And another prominent member of the Blair wing of the party, Peter Kyle, becomes Business Secretary at a time when, after the last Budget, Labour badly needs to rebuild relations with business.
There is a very clear narrative here, and the loser is the Labour soft left, many of whom had seen Angela Rayner as their natural tax-and-spend leader. The best news the moderate left can muster is survival – Ed Miliband remains in post despite the venom directed at him by Tory England.
There are plenty of figures on the left quietly seething and the Prime Minister needs to negotiate the difficulty of replacing the party’s deputy leader without a divisive open contest. He is being advised to delay. He is being advised to abolish the post. But the party is divided between those who feel Starmer hasn’t been nearly Labour enough – who want wealth taxes, no watering down of workers’ rights, and the more aggressive approach to Israel – and the right, taking almost the opposite view on all of the above.
Many MPs and party members remain confused about the direction of the government and would be outraged if one of the few last real functions of a party democracy was taken away from them and they were robbed of the chance of a “proper debate”. This is a genuine problem for the Prime Minister because that’s the last thing he wants to give his foot soldiers.
A few words about the fallen. Angela Rayner, I believe, will be back in time. Politics without her will be too boring. There was genuine warmth and not a trace of rancour in the exchange of letters between her and Starmer, who wrote his by hand. Nobody in the party believes she acted corruptly; across the Chamber there is still much sympathy.
Yvette Cooper isn’t really “fallen”. In the traditional hierarchy, Foreign Secretary has seniority: few politicians have been able to use the Home Office as a stepping stone rather than a gravestone. She has long been fascinated by foreign affairs and, as one of the leading figures fighting hard Brexit, is likely to lean heavily towards better relations with the EU.
Her predecessor, David Lammy, however, has reason to feel miffed and suspicious. He had performed better at the Foreign Office than many expected, developing an unlikely friendship with JD Vance and negotiating the treacherous waters between Maga and Europe. Yes, he is Deputy Prime Minister; but what is the real job here? Has he got the ostrich feather plumes and golden epaulettes but not, in fact, the command?
This has not always been an elegant or quick-witted government. But there was a certain panache with the way Starmer turned the unqualified disaster of the Rayner resignation in mid-morning, into a much bigger and more interesting story by early afternoon. If Mahmood can find a way to stop the boats and if McFadden can help get growth going – big “ifs” – this could be a proper turning point at last.
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