Most populists thrive on their novelty. Nigel Farage is a man with a long track record. It’s one that many in Labour believe it can exploit. Wes Streeting likes to refer to Farage as a “Marmite” politician – 61 per cent of voters have an unfavourable opinion of him – in contrast to the “Heineken” Boris Johnson who extended the Conservatives’ political reach.
By far Farage’s biggest victory was Brexit, an act that made him the most consequential politician of the last decade. But as public opinion has turned, some in Labour have long argued that they should confront Reform on this terrain. That’s something Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds – Starmer confidant, Bevan, Attlee and Wilson biographer – has done in his speech this morning.
The man who negotiated the UK’s reset deal with the EU back in May assailed Reforms’s opposition to it. “Nigel Farage‘s manifesto at the next election will say in writing he wants to take Britain backwards, cutting at least £9bn from the economy, bringing with it a risk to jobs and a risk of food prices going up,” Thomas-Symonds declared. “Nigel Farage wants Britain to fail. His model of politics feeds on it, offering the easy answers, dividing communities and stoking anger.”
It’s a dividing line that Rachel Reeves, traditionally one of the cabinet’s more Eurosceptic members, also intends to harness. As Farage seeks to woo business through a “bacon-and-egg offensive”, the Chancellor will emphasise that the party threatens a trade deal that firms overwhelmingly support.
No 10 has long pointed to its reset with Europe as proof that Labour is not simply engaged in chasing Reform’s tail. Strategists note that Starmer chose to meet European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen during the local election campaign even as Farage surged.
This partly reflects an underappreciated sea change in British public opinion. Leavers used to take pride in asserting that the elites were on the wrong side of the people, but they now find this charge thrown back at them. A recent YouGov poll found that 56 per cent believe the UK was wrong to leave the EU compared to just 32 per cent who believe it was right. There’s a difference between “Bregret” and “Brejoin” but the same number (56 per cent) also favour rejoining the EU. Labour’s red lines, however, remain implacable.
Here, then, is a familiar dilemma confronting Starmer: does he risk leaving both sides unhappy? Reform and the Conservatives will cry that Labour has jettisoned the UK’s hard-won Brexit freedoms; the Lib Dems and the Greens will accuse it of a paucity of ambition.
The alternative view is that, as one Labour MP puts it, Starmer’s deal is rather like Goldilocks’ porridge: not too hot, not too cold but just right. Yet as the government strives to prove it has a strategy for re-election, expect the Europe question to return.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Labour can’t agree on how to fight Farage]
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