Back in the autumn of 2023, Keir Starmer found himself politically cornered over Gaza. Senior Labour figures such as Sadiq Khan, Andy Burnham and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar as well as a dozen shadow ministers defied Starmer to call for an “immediate ceasefire”. He later endured the biggest rebellion of his leadership with 56 MPs backing an SNP motion and eight shadow ministers resigning (Labour’s position would eventually shift in February 2024 to prevent a yet greater revolt).
There are now signs of a similar dynamic unfolding over Palestinian statehood as the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza attracts new outrage. On Tuesday, Wes Streeting used ministerial health questions to back recognition of the state of Palestine “while there is still a state of Palestine left to recognise” (a position supported by cabinet colleagues Shabana Mahmood and Hilary Benn). Khan, a decades-long friend of Starmer, yesterday echoed this stance, warning that “there can be no two-state solution if there is no viable state to call Palestine”, as did Emily Thornberry, the chair of the foreign affairs select committee. Almost 60 Labour MPs have written to David Lammy demanding the UK immediately recognise Palestine.
Yet for now there is no sign that the government’s stance will change. Ministers believe that a political agreement between the Hamas-led Gaza Strip and the Fatah-led West Bank is a precondition of Palestinian recognition. During his appearance before the Commons Liaison Committee earlier this week, Starmer said the UK would act “at a time most conducive to the prospects of peace” in the region. Lammy has emphasised that the decision by Spain, Ireland and Norway to recognise Palestine last year “did not change things on the ground”.
Ministers also contend that the charge of British inaction is unjustified. Since Labour entered office, the UK has suspended 29 arms export licences to Israel, halted trade talks with the Netanyahu government, and imposed sanctions on violent West Bank settlers and two far-right Israel cabinet ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich (with further sanctions under consideration).
This, European diplomats note, represents a tougher stance than that of France. While Emmanuel Macron has publicly toyed with immediate recognition of Palestine (describing it as “not only a moral duty but a political necessity”), he has refused to impose sanctions on Israeli cabinet ministers or suspend arms licences. Not for the first time, they observe, Macron’s words have run ahead of his actions.
But such favourable comparisons do not alter the fraught domestic political situation that confronts Starmer over Gaza. “This isn’t going away – it’s bigger than Iraq was and it will still be there at the next general election,” one senior Labour figure recently told me (Gaza independents are projected to win as many as 25 seats). Luke Tryl of More in Common likens the sense of betrayal among Muslim voters in focus groups to that of Red Wall voters in 2016: some in Labour fear the party will face a historic revolt in London next year. For Starmer, this political crisis may be only beginning.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Ukraine turns on Volodymyr Zelensky]
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