The problem with Reform, a Labour MP told me at the start of this week, is that they’re hopeless at expectation management. Rather than boasting that they would sweep the board, he suggested, they should speak of gaining a “toe hold” in local government.
In the event, it didn’t matter. Expectations were high – and Reform surpassed them anyway. By winning a parliamentary by-election, 10 councils and two mayoralties, Nigel Farage has confirmed his ascent to the political mainstream. Once a single-issue campaigner, he now leads an expansive populist force capable of routing the left and the right (Italy’s Five Star Movement is one model) and insurgent across England, Wales and Scotland.
Reform’s projected national share of 30 per cent makes it the first party other than Labour or the Conservatives to ever lead this measure. Crucially, the voting system is no longer an obstacle to Farage’s rise. Though small parties initially seem imprisoned by first-past-the-post, at a certain point they achieve escape velocity – think Labour in the 1920s or the SNP in the 2010s. This is the realm in which Farage can now dare to dream.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, are haunted by visions of political death. Having long complained that Farage is splitting their vote, he can increasingly riposte that they are splitting his. Venerable parties can fall with terrifying speed in a majoritarian system (just ask the Liberal Democrats or the 1993-era Canadian Conservatives). The Tories’ greatest strength has long been their capacity for regeneration – a quality they need now more than ever. Back in May 2019 when Farage triumphed in the European elections and the Conservatives endured their worst-ever national result (winning 9 per cent of the vote) it was Boris Johnson who was summoned (don’t be surprised if the whispers of his name in Tory circles grow louder now).
But Labour, which could traditionally revel in Conservative angst, has its own Reform problem. That much was already clear on the evening of 4 July when Farage’s party finished second in 89 of its seats. Defeat in Runcorn and Helsby – Labour’s 49th safest constituency – and routs in County Durham and Doncaster proved Reform’s lethal capacity (though optimists believe a six-vote by-election majority could be overturned at a general election). “Northern England could be Scotland in 2015 unless we push harder and faster and take risks,” one senior Labour MP tells me.
If there is any consolation for Labour it is this – it faces no totemic threat to its left. As anticipated here on Monday, the Liberal Democrats continued their rebirth, gaining 163 seats and three councils. But as they focus on predominantly southern Conservative targets, strategists have no intention of pitching themselves as a left alternative to Labour (or, scarred by past experience, of posturing as a government-in-waiting).
The Greens do but, in propitious political conditions, their advance remains underwhelming. Whether that changes in London and other metropolitan areas next year will be a defining test. Will either they or the Lib Dems be capable of winning seats off Labour by 2029?
The talk is of the death of the two-party system and the emergence of a five-party one. That’s certainly true on one level – Labour finds itself under threat on multiple fronts (including a resurgent SNP and pro-Gaza independents). But even in this era of fragmentation, first-past-the-post will still encourage a binary logic at the next election. Who will you vote to make prime minister or vote to stop?
In the absence of a dramatic progressive revolt, Labour will start as the dominant centre-left party in an overwhelming number of seats. Farage, meanwhile, could supplant the Conservatives as the foremost alternative.
Labour strategists have always believed that the populist right would be their main opponent at the next general election – the question was whether the rosette would be turquoise or blue. The seismic events felt across England yesterday may be remembered as the moment that the answer became clear.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here.
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