This time, the hype was justified. For over a decade, Nigel Farage has boasted of parking his tanks on Labour’s lawn. But until today none of his various outfits had succeeded in winning a seat from the party.
That has finally changed. After a full recount, Reform won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by six votes – the closest result for more than a century – overturning a 14,696 majority. This, against an experienced Labour electoral machine, is a dramatic advance for Farage’s party, one that signals its strengthening ground operation.
Labour has responded by noting that “by-elections are always difficult for the party in government” and that “the events which led to this one being called made it even harder”. Former MP Mike Amesbury’s assault on a voter has proved the most politically pivotal punch since a similarly well-refreshed Eric Joyce let rip in a House of Commons bar in 2012 (that paved the way for the Falkirk by-election, a change in the Labour leadership voting rules and the election of Jeremy Corbyn).
But even these extenuating circumstances cannot disguise the scale of Labour’s reversal. Runcorn and Helsby was the 49th safest of the 411 seats that Keir Starmer’s party won just 10 months ago. Though the last parliament saw numerous Conservative fortresses toppled, this is not a pattern that a fresh Labour administration was supposed to replicate.
Reform’s victory will deepen the anxiety among Starmer’s MPs – and intensify divisions over how to respond. It’s not only the 88 Labour MPs with Reform in second place who will be looking nervously over their shoulder – more than 250 would lose their seats were the 17.4 per cent swing to Farage’s party in Runcorn replicated.
In response, expect an increasing number of MPs to demand a “reset” – greater action to reduce immigration (one of the defining issues in Runcorn) and an avoidance of further austerity measures. As Labour sources from across the party testify, the means-testing of winter fuel payments has proved toxic among voters. Those cabinet ministers who privately warned against the policy from the start – and who are pushing for a change to Rachel Reeves’s fiscal approach – will be emboldened.
Expect the result to also deepen the debate over Labour’s electoral strategy. While some emphasise the need to neutralise an advancing right, others will point to a fractured left. In Runcorn, the combined Green and Liberal Democrat vote (3,256) far exceeded Reform’s majority. Though Farage’s party was long the favourite to win the seat, this was not enough to prevent a progressive divide.
For Labour, the great consolation remains time. The next general election need not be held until August 2029. Reform’s electoral success will bring greater prominence but also added scrutiny. Yet the sinking feeling among Labour MPs – that they could one day be swept away as mercilessly as the Conservatives – has deepened.
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