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5 June 2019updated 08 Jul 2021 12:15pm

Conservatives on course for a majority – but Boris Johnson could lose his seat

By Stephen Bush

The Conservatives are on course for a majority of 48, according to analysis of YouGov conducted by Datapraxis, whose chief executive, Paul Hilder, was a candidate for the role of Labour general secretary under Jeremy Corbyn.

Although a similar multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) model to this one predicted the result correctly in 2017, the use of MRP is no more or less reliable than the use of polling. However, the value of MRP is it can potentially highlight variations in regional strength in a way simple polling cannot.

According to Datapraxis’ analysis, if the election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would gain 32 seats on 2017, taking them to 349. The SNP would win 49 of the 59 seats in Scotland, while the Liberal Democrats would gain just two seats across the United Kingdom, taking them to 14. Labour would lose 49 seats, taking them to just 213, their worst defeat since 1983. Plaid Cymru would go from four to five seats, while the Greens would hold steady at one.  

However, Datapraxis’ seat-by-seat analysis also shows that Zac Goldsmith is set to lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats’ Sarah Olney and that tactical voting could see five Conservative big beasts join him, including Boris Johnson himself. In Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton constituency, his majority has been slashed to just 2,972 over the Liberal Democrats – small enough for Labour and Green voters to kick the Foreign Secretary out by voting tactically for the Liberal Democrats. In Chingford and Wood Green, Iain Duncan Smith’s majority is set to fall to 1,914 – again, within the reach of tactical voting by Liberal Democrat and Green voters in the constituency, they lend their votes to Labour. Tactical votes for the Liberal Democrats in Wokingham could cost John Redwood his seat, while ERG chief Steve Baker in Wycombe and Boris Johnson himself could be unseated by tactical voting for the Labour candidates.

But the analysis indicates the mountain to climb for Boris Johnson’s opponents nationwide if they wish to prevent a Conservative majority government – even if they can unseat Johnson himself.

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