It was not exactly the message of unity that Scottish Labour was hoping for as the starting gun was fired on the 2026 Holyrood election campaign. This week (on 7 January), Anas Sarwar called some of his Scottish MPs “idiotic” after it emerged they were pushing for Wes Streeting to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister before May’s electoral test, which looks likely to go badly for the party.
On Monday, in his first speech of the year, Sarwar had distanced himself from Starmer, appearing to suggest the Prime Minister should stay in London rather than campaign in Scotland. The pair are friends and allies, but Starmer’s unpopularity and the many missteps of his government have had a devastating effect on Scottish Labour’s support. The most recent poll put them in fourth place, behind the SNP, Reform and the Greens. Happy new year, comrades.
This was not how things were supposed to play out. At the time of the 2024 general election, Sarwar looked to be a sure thing for Bute House, the first minister’s official residence. The SNP was scandal-ridden, exhausted after nearly two decades in office, and had lost its way on the issue of independence. A popular new Labour government at Westminster, with a tranche of freshly elected Scottish MPs, would surely pave the way for Labour to finally oust the Nats from office. Not so much, it turns out.
I’d expect Labour to do better in May than the numbers currently suggest – the party’s performance in local and devolved by-elections has generally been better than the pollsters have predicted. But still, with four months to go until the devolved vote, it is a fact that Labour is currently wrestling not with the SNP for first place, but with Reform for second. There is no clear or obvious route to outright victory, and smart ideas on public service reform are unlikely to shift the dial to the extent necessary. Some big policy bombs are needed.
To Labour’s benefit, the party has the best ground game of any of the parties. Its social media performance is sharper than the rest’s too, for what that is worth. And in Sarwar, it has a talented and energetic frontman. There is also the advantage of having the campaign run by Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander, a canny and experienced electoral strategist. But still, there is a mountain to climb in a very short period of time.
The SNP cannot believe its luck. It is framing the contest as a straight shoot-out with Reform, which is probably not true, but is none the less a powerful slogan. The party has a solid electoral base of between 30 and 35 per cent, which given the divided unionist vote, will be enough to return John Swinney to office. That will give the Nats a fifth straight term, a staggering achievement.
Ostensibly, the SNP is not without its problems to seek. The alleged misuse of party funds by former chief executive Peter Murrell still hangs in the air, with Murrell expected in court before May. I’m told, though, that internal polling suggests voters don’t hold Swinney accountable for that scandal – they associate it with the previous regime under Nicola Sturgeon, who was married to Murrell at the time. Swinney is seen as a steadying force and a decent man, both of which are true enough.
The SNP has also struggled to raise funds since the Murrell crisis emerged, with donors unwilling to be associated with a party facing criminal investigation. Swinney said this week, though, that he expects the party to reach the £1.5 million spending limit for the Holyrood election. Insiders are bemused about that. “Realistically, where’s the cash going to come from?” one said to me.
The SNP has a new chief executive in 41-year-old Callum McCaig, a former MP and Spad who was leader of Aberdeen City Council at the tender age of 26. McCaig is well-rated in the party. He is a laid-back figure who has stayed out of the media since taking on the role, which is probably what is needed given the controversy surrounding his predecessor. I’m told McCaig and his team have a strategy of using what they call “Nats in the wild” to boost their election campaign. These are the former SNP MPs, MSPs, staffers and councillors who lost their jobs as support for the party declined over the past few years – in the last general election alone, 39 MPs were ejected from parliament. They are now being tasked with helping with fundraising and campaigning on the doorsteps. “We haven’t really had well-known and experienced ambassadors on this level before,” one source told me.
The SNP’s track record in office is not particularly something to boast about. The data surrounding school and NHS performance is poor. Many universities and colleges are in financial crisis. There is the unending ferry scandal. Scotland has the highest number of drugs deaths in Europe. Targets on housing and net zero have been routinely missed. And yet, the Nats have the undeniable advantage of being in office, with the spending and rhetorical power that provides. For example, Swinney was able to announce this week that Scots will get an extra bank holiday during the World Cup, enabling them to watch the national team – a bribe by any other name.
This advantage will be further evident next week, when Finance Secretary Shona Robison delivers the last Scottish Budget before the election. It seems unlikely, despite warnings from public sector watchdogs such as Audit Scotland and the Scottish Fiscal Commission, that this will be a moment of retrenchment or fiscal caution. The devolved Government’s spending power has been boosted by extra cash from Westminster, thanks to Rachel Reeves’s Budget decisions. There will be little gratitude shown towards Reeves, but the SNP will use the money to enhance its backing among specific groups. The First Minister said this week that tackling child poverty will be at the heart of the decisions taken, which plays well with the left, from where the Nats draw much of their support.
And what of Reform? Nigel Farage will announce Malcolm Offord as the party’s Scottish leader next week, giving it an authentically Scottish face and voice. Offord, who made a fortune in private equity before entering the Lords as a Tory peer and Scotland Office minister, defected recently and provides a credibility which few expected Reform to muster north of the border. He is determined to focus on economic growth and reform of public services – it remains to be seen how he will square that with Farage’s often antagonistic comments on immigrants. Scotland as a whole is relatively pro-immigration, and with its fast-aging population and rural and island communities, needs more rather than fewer incomers.
The energy and freshness of Reform is causing problems for Labour and the Conservatives, attracting unionist voters who have become disillusioned with what they see as an ineffective mainstream. On the left, the Scottish Greens are similarly benefitting from this disaffection and should do well in May. The situation is most acute for the Scottish Tories – insiders expect to see their MSP numbers drop to single figures in May. Leader Russell Findlay has fought hard to challenge Holyrood’s left-wing orthodoxy, but has struggled to secure a hearing – the voters simply find Reform more interesting, and there is not much he can do to change that.
All taken together, Scotland is every bit as divided and confused as any other nation across the West, and voters are proving to be just as attracted by the siren songs of populists and radicals, and untrusting of the same old faces. There are policy crises across the board that have no easy or obvious solutions. If Reform wins the 20-or-so seats it is predicted to, there will need to be a self-reckoning by the traditional establishment as to why.
Swinney has ruled out any second independence referendum unless the SNP wins a majority of seats in May. That outcome seems unthinkable, but he is playing a longer game. If Farage wins the next general election, that could push more Scots into the pro-independence corner. Support for leaving the UK still sits at around 50 per cent, and so it wouldn’t take much to create a solid majority for separation. Anas Sarwar and his colleagues may well, and justifiably, blame Keir Starmer for the predicament they find themselves in. But ultimately, this failing Prime Minister may be putting the very future of the country at risk.
[Further reading: Can a progressive alliance defeat Reform?]
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