The last time I saw Lord Offord of Garvel in the flesh was a few months ago. We both attended a lunch for well-to-do business types, and as I left I was suitably impressed by the array of elite motors in the car park.
The best belonged to Malcolm Offord, though: a vintage, open-top Jaguar sports car, Bond-esque in its sleek lines and growling power. Offord, with his sunglasses and slicked-back, wealthy man’s hair, looked entirely fit for purpose in the driver’s seat as he roared off into the countryside.
In life as in politics, though, not everything goes to plan. A few minutes later the heavens opened. I’ve been worried since about what happened to the peer’s glistening barnet as well as the inside of his car.
I’d heard rumours in the past few weeks that Offord might defect from the Conservatives to Reform. Mutual friends thought he fancied a shot at leading the insurgent party in Scotland. I had my doubts, however. In our conversations, he has always come across as a liberal Conservative, and hardly a clean fit for whatever it is that Nigel Farage is turning Reform into. Shows what I know.
Regardless of that, I think he’s a terrific get for his new party, for a variety of reasons. He’s smart and successful, having amassed a fortune in private equity, with a grasp of economics and business that will dwarf that of anyone else at Holyrood, presuming he makes it there in next May’s election. He’s passionately and authentically Scottish, born to an ordinary background in Greenock with a useful habit of throwing in the odd bit of Scottish slang when he speaks. The condition of Scotland has been his main political focus, as he proved with the publication of an excellent paper, Wealthy Nation, Healthy Nation, earlier this year. This looked at how the legacy of Adam Smith might be used to boost growth and productivity north of the border, and examined the failings of the nation’s education and health systems. All this helps tackle the perceived “Englishness” of Reform.
Offord brings much needed governing experience, too. Although relatively new to politics, having been made a peer in 2021 after failing to be elected to the Scottish Parliament, he quickly became a minister in the Scotland Office and then worked for Kemi Badenoch as minister for exports in the Department for Business. He enjoyed it, and was a perhaps rare example of someone from a high-level business background adapting smoothly to the political life.
It hasn’t been officially confirmed, but Offord is all but certain to lead Reform in Scotland. I suspect this was the deal done with Farage as the price of his defection. He is certainly serious enough about what he’s doing to have handed back his peerage in order to run again for Scottish Parliament, which isn’t a choice undertaken lightly. His willingness to make the leap, as well as his establishment credentials, adds legitimacy to the party. He is straightforward, plain-speaking, good on TV and not, I would say, especially extreme on anything – or he certainly hasn’t been up till now.
This, I suppose, is where the doubts creep in. The Offord I know will want to focus on growing the economy and reforming public services. How will that sit with the sometimes incendiary rhetoric of Farage on immigration? Reform’s race-based attacks on Anas Sarwar during the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election in June were disgraceful, but the creation of this kind of division has been central to its campaigning style and its appeal to a segment of the electorate. While concern about immigration is rising in Scotland, there are no small boats arriving on the nation’s shores, and its population is ageing at a faster rate than elsewhere in the UK. If anything, Scotland needs more, rather than fewer, immigrants. How does that sit with Reform’s messaging during the Holyrood campaign? How comfortable will Offord be having to defend Farage when his UK leader cuts loose on a topic that is both endlessly controversial and apparently a key vote winner?
Reform’s success so far has largely been based on its willingness to say things that the mainstream parties won’t. It has been inflammatory, populist, and its policies have lacked enough detail, or been broad enough, to escape real interrogation. How different can Offord’s approach be? He is at heart a fairly traditional Conservative, but there is already a Conservative Party in Scotland, even if its electoral prospects currently look grim. How will his pitch differ from that of Russell Findlay, the Scots Tory leader? Findlay has pursued a robust “common-sense conservatism” that has led some of his MSPs to quit the Conservative benches, claiming he is shifting the party too close to the Reform agenda. Where is the gap waiting to be filled?
Offord has the advantage of the new, of course. Voters, even those who won’t vote for Reform, are intrigued and/or horrified by its rise and curious about the reasons behind it. The party is taking support from the Tories and Labour, and even some from the SNP. Disenchantment with the mainstream is real, and growing, and there is a willingness to listen to fresh voices, even if Farage remains a figure of significant contention. A poll this week put Reform in second place in Holyrood voting intentions, behind the SNP but ahead of Labour.
These, then, are the challenges and opportunities facing the new man and the new party. How does Reform Scotland shape itself? Where does it profitably differ from Reform UK? How does it adapt to Scotland’s specific sensibilities? In doing so, how does it avoid losing that which has made it distinctive and attractive to certain parts of the electorate? Questions plain old Malcolm Offord now has to answer.
[Further reading: I was at school with Nigel Farage, this is what I heard]
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