Poor Russell Findlay. Already reeling from the resignation of one of his MSPs last week, the Scottish Tory leader has now lost another. That makes three in four months. To lose one may be misfortune, etc.
Graham Simpson is the latest to flee the Conservatives’ increasingly denuded benches, becoming the first MSP for Nigel Farage’s Reform. Simpson appeared somewhat nervous, if not sleepless and traumatised, as he sat beside his new leader at the press conference where his defection was announced 27 August. He wasn’t looking forward to the responses from his erstwhile colleagues, he said. He will also now be the lightning rod for anti-Reform sentiment in Scotland, which is likely to intensify as next May’s Holyrood election approaches.
It made for a curious partnership. Farage was Farage – loud, supremely confident, willing to take on all-comers, his answers slick and polished yet also somehow earthy and straightforward. It’s a real skill. But he really isn’t comfortable sharing the spotlight with anyone else. Simpson was quietly spoken, refused to criticise Findlay or his old party, and came across as someone who knew he’d done something naughty and may live to regret it. When he talked about his attempts to win free rail travel for companions accompanying blind travellers, Farage looked nonplussed. He interrupted his junior – who he appeared to have met for the first time about five minutes before taking to the stage – freely, whenever he felt like it.
It was, though, quite effective – a sort of good cop, bad cop routine. Simpson, reasonable and unaggressive, may be just what the party needs if it is to woo Reform-curious, disenchanted Scottish voters. Farage can do the bombastic anti-immigrant and net zero stuff, while his new MSP talks about transport policy and improving schools. Something for everyone, if you’re so minded. Another brick in the credibility wall for Reform north of the border.
For Findlay, the situation looks increasingly desperate. In April, Jamie Greene quit to join the Lib Dems, accusing the Tory leadership of turning into “Reform-lite”. Last week Jeremy Balfour, the social justice spokesman, announced he would sit as an independent, criticising what he claimed was a drift towards “reactionary politics”. Not reactionary enough for Simpson, it seems, who has leapt to the right.
Momentum is everything in politics, and Reform currently has it in England, Scotland and Wales. It hopes to win the Senedd outright next May, while John Curtice, the eminent pollster, believes it is now a shoot-out between Labour and Reform for second place at Holyrood. This leaves the Tories out of the picture, out of the narrative and, it seems, running out of people.
It is unlikely to be plain sailing for Reform in Scotland, though. Farage described the party as a “teenager” in Scottish political terms, yet to reach full maturity. The party will have to be careful with its candidate vetting. It will have to choose a leader – Farage would not play that role for the Edinburgh elections, he has said. The lugubrious Simpson would seem the obvious candidate at this stage, unless Reform can drag in someone with more star power and charisma.
There will also be a fine line to tread. Simpson stayed away from the more controversial issues that are Farage’s bread and butter. But his leader said he would be in Scotland regularly during the election campaign, where he will doubtless continue to prosecute his line on migrants. The recent Hamilton by-election saw Reform deploy the kind of racial dog-whistle politics that it is known for, falsely accusing Labour leader Anas Sarwar of prioritising Pakistani voters. I can’t imagine the mild-mannered new man would be at all comfortable in that toxic environment, but nor can I imagine the London leadership abandoning its bare-knuckle strategy.
Scotland’s national politics looks ever more like a three-way marginal between the SNP, Labour and Reform. What a battle it’s going to be. Buckle up.
[See also: Labour can’t agree on how to fight Farage]
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