Anas Sarwar has cut back on the coffee. I’m told the Scottish Labour leader had developed an expensive Starbucks habit, but is now limiting himself to two cups a day. His hard-working aides reflect, somewhat ruefully, that there has been no consequent reduction in his prodigious energy levels.
That’s probably for the best because Sarwar has, as he said this week, “a mountain to climb”. Labour, which six months ago appeared on course for victory in the next Holyrood election, once again finds itself in the all too familiar position of trailing the SNP in the polls. As the psephologist John Curtice put it, support for the party seems to have “imploded”.
It was not supposed to be like this. By the time the 2026 election arrives, the Nats will have been in power for close to two decades. They have, in recent years, been through scandal after scandal, delivered failed policy after failed policy, and hacked off just about everyone. Still, somehow John Swinney has managed to steady the ship, refocus the government on mainstream issues such as public service reform and the economy, and at present looks on course to secure an unprecedented fifth term for his party.
This isn’t really Sarwar’s fault. He helped Keir Starmer secure a massive majority at the general election, sending 37 Scottish Labour MPs to Westminster, up from just one at the previous election. But the Prime Minister’s underwhelming first six months in office have left many Scottish voters puzzled and disillusioned. The employers’ National Insurance rise, and the winter fuel payment cuts, have played particularly badly in Scotland, Labour MSPs say. SNP stability, plus the dizzying rise of Reform north of the border, have left Sarwar in need of some new tricks.
It’s worth saying that although the leadership accepts the current polling data is grim – and more than one senior figure has used the word “shitshow” to me in reference to Westminster – they remain optimistic about 2026. They point to a YouGov poll published this week that found a majority of Scots were unhappy with both the Labour and SNP governments. Most of those voters who backed Labour in July but have now peeled away can be won back, they believe – these are “undecideds” who are not moving to the SNP or Reform. “We captured aspirational middle Scotland in July 2024, with a message of economic competence and economic growth, and we can do it again,” a source told me. There’s also confidence that Sarwar’s energy and undoubted charisma will best the more restrained Swinney in the election campaign and in debates.
There has been much criticism of the lack of detailed policy from a party that wants to be seen as a government-in-waiting. Labour is now moving to fill in some of the blanks. Sarwar this week launched a consultation on the party’s technology strategy, taking in computer science education, digital exclusion, infusing tech into the public sector, and driving investment. At the party’s Scottish conference in Glasgow later this month there will be announcements on the NHS and broader health policy.
Sarwar is taking much of his inspiration from Andy Burnham’s impressive record as mayor of Greater Manchester – he recently hired Ross McCrae, a former Burnham adviser – though as he points out, Holyrood has significantly more levers than England’s directly-elected mayors. He talks of Holyrood having been too much of a “social policy parliament” in its first 25 years and not enough of an “economic parliament”. If he wins the election, he plans to install an economics directorate at the heart of the first minister’s office. Scotland’s enterprise agencies – Scottish Enterprise, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, and South of Scotland Enterprise, will be reorganised into a single “super agency” that will answer to and be steered by the directorate. There will be a “concierge service” that provides a simplified, gold standard service for potential investors, an approach that has worked well in Ireland and Manchester.
Scotland’s complex income tax structure – there are six separate bands, and Scots earning around £30,000 and above pay more than people elsewhere in the UK – will be tackled, with a particular emphasis on helping middle earners who currently face some challenging cliff edges due to the way the UK and devolved tax systems interact.
There is talk of a new National Planning Agency to speed up decision making. Labour sources say that the current system is “diabolical” – planning permission in Greater Manchester has an 18-week wait, compared to Glasgow’s 58 weeks, they claim.
There will also be a focus on regional economic development, ensuring neighbouring councils and other agencies work more closely together. One likely outcome of this is a directly-elected mayor for Greater Glasgow, combining a large chunk of the West of Scotland. Labour intends to cut back the large number of quangos.
But the leadership is aware that while policy is necessary, it is not sufficient. Swinney has moved the SNP into much the same territory as Sarwar, and the parties could end up offering reasonably similar agendas. Labour sources believe 2026 will mainly be a “vibes election”. It is better to have an unpopular UK government now – with time to turn things around – than for it suddenly to become unpopular as the Scottish election approaches, they argue. They still hope for some payback for the general election result – “if there’s one thing they can do for us, it’s to start bringing energy prices down by next May,” an insider told me.
Sources also point out that during the general election campaign, Labour concentrated its fire on the Tories, and effectively outsourced attacks on the SNP to the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. The “anti-SNP alliance will be rebuilt and we will insource those attacks,” one strategist said.
Sarwar’s team still hold that Holyrood 2026 will be a two-party race, despite polls showing the rise of Reform and predicting a parliament of minorities. They believe Reform could do more damage to the Nats than is appreciated, especially if Labour does well in the constituency vote. “If we win constituencies, Reform take seats off the SNP on the list. If the SNP wins constituencies, Reform will take seats off us on the list. So we have to win constituencies,” a senior figure said.
They also think the “scunner factor”, which is helping Reform, could play well for Labour. “If in the election there’s a strong ‘fuck you’ factor, we aren’t the incumbents. We have to scoop up some of that fuck-you factor but offer some hope and positive policies too, which Reform can’t do.”
There are those who doubt that Sarwar can climb that mountain. But, caffeine-fuelled or not, he’s going to give everything to Scottish Labour’s fightback. Given what he’s achieved so far, it might prove ill-advised to bet against him.
[See also: Is the SNP renewing itself again?]
Listen to the New Statesman podcast
Content from our partners
Related
