28 February 2025

The SNP’s defence headache

As the West rearms against the Russian threat, Scotland’s government risks appearing detached from reality.

In politics, you can tell how well you’re doing by the level of panic in your opponents’ response. By that measurement, Reform UK is flying in Scotland.

First Minister John Swinney this week announced a cross-party summit to tackle the rise of Nigel Farage’s party. Mainstream politicians are alarmed by Reform’s surge in the polls, which suggest it will win as many as 15 seats at the next Holyrood election in May 2026, potentially putting it in the position of kingmaker.

If this seems like a principled response, then that is certainly part of the thinking. At a press conference at Bute House, his official residence, on Wednesday, Swinney attacked Farage for having “a fundamentally racist view of the world”, and said the Reform leader was an “accomplice” and “apologist” for Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine.

The FM and his fellow leaders are taking the Reform threat very seriously indeed, as they should. The party’s rise mirrors that of insurgent hard-right movements across the West. It has the wind at its backs, which the swaggering brutality of the Trump administration threatens to turn into a hurricane.

Those who thought “progressive” Scotland would be immune to this trend are being proved wrong. A nation that has prosecuted the woke agenda with particular vigour is seeing a backlash from those voters who have had enough of gender reform and of being lectured on net zero, and who are sceptical of the view generally shared by Holyrood politicians of all persuasions that Scotland needs more immigration.

There is also a growing sense that mainstream politics talks a good game but fails to deliver – under the long SNP reign, public services have declined and the economy has struggled. The cost of living remains punishingly high, and energy prices are rising again. As elsewhere in the world, those with little to lose are looking at radical alternatives to the same old parties and the same old politicians.

So it’s understandable that the centre, worried that it will not hold, might gather together to mount a fightback. There is a risk, however, in effectively telling those voters considering a vote for Reform that they are racist. Some of them will be, but others are simply frustrated with the tattered state of the nation.

If there is principle involved in Swinney’s announcement, there is also politics. Another reason for his initiative is to paint the SNP as the main anti-Reform vehicle – here, he is seeking to steal a march on Anas Sarwar, his Labour rival. Swinney’s planned summit, which will be at the end of April, is intended to include political leaders, trade unions, churches and charities. It will be interesting to see whether Sarwar and Russell Findlay, the Scottish Conservative leader, are willing to engage with an SNP-led venture such as this.

It can also be seen as a sign of Swinney’s growing confidence in the security of his position as SNP leader and First Minister. Scottish Labour’s struggle in the polls continues, with the SNP currently on course to be the largest party in 2026 yet again. A man who was initially seen as a caretaker leader has instead steadied the rocky Nat ship and recast the government, discarding many of the unwise policies that characterised the latter years of Nicola Sturgeon and the unhappy, short-lived tenure of Humza Yousaf.

Indeed, so secure is Swinney that he has declared himself ready to lead party and country beyond the 2031 election. At this stage, there will be little pushback on that ambition from internal rivals, publicly at least – he has earned the right, one might say.

There are, however, plenty of bumps in the road ahead. Swinney has pledged to reduce NHS waiting lists, which is a noble goal but a promise that will have to be kept if his credibility is to survive. He will have to take tough measures if the education system is to improve on its parlous state. The administration has continually failed to meet its net zero goals.

And while Rachel Reeves’ first Budget provided a generous multibillion-pound boost to the Scottish government’s coffers, the world has since changed dramatically. Rises in defence spending over the coming decade will inevitably impact on what’s available to be spent elsewhere.

The SNP contains a pacifist streak that has seen it stand against many of the recent wars fought by Western powers. It is anti-nuclear, both weapons and power, and has an uneasy relationship with Scotland’s defence sector. Yet these are areas that will be prominent in the national discussion as Europe rearms against the Russian threat in the face of US withdrawal. The Nats will have to find a way to talk about this without looking detached from reality, of wanting Scotland to hunker down in its little northern European corner and avoid playing a role in the difficult times to come. It also seems unlikely that Scots will want to reheat the independence debate during a period of prolonged international crisis.

So while the political climate currently looks favourable for the First Minister, and while he is playing his hand well, big challenges lie ahead. What success he has had so far has been largely based on rhetoric. Voters are now looking for action and effectiveness. Without those, summit or not, more of them will be willing to cast a thoughtful eye over Reform.