Nigel Farage is a canny political operator. There was a strategy behind his decision to resign the Clacton constituency and force a by-election. Reform’s vote share is on a downward trend in the opinion polls right now. Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is taking roughly one in ten of its voters. There is a perception, for the first time in more than a year, that the Labour government is making more of the political weather than Reform. Farage needed something to rally his base.
It does not, however, appear to have worked. So, what would be a good result for Nigel Farage in Clacton?
Winning is all but guaranteed. Clacton ranks in the top five most favourable seats for Reform in the country. Just like Ukip in the 2010s, Reform is certain to win the seat comfortably.
But there are two factors to look out for: vote share, and turnout.
Farage got 46 per cent in 2024. Ukip with Douglas Carswell as its candidate got 44 per cent. Britain Predicts says in a conventional fight, with the mainstream parties standing, Farage should get more than 60 per cent. A Survation constituency poll says with the current crop of candidates – all 34 – he should get 70 per cent.
The absence of the other main parties should, conventionally, encourage their supporters to sit this race out. Without them, Farage getting 70 per cent or more seems a reasonable assumption. That is, of course, assuming the absence of mainstream voters is not mirrored by an equal absence of Reform supporters.
If Farage were to get less than 60 per cent, then the headlines will all be about him underperforming in his backyard. It would also be a sign that Reform’s opponents are willing to go out and vote against him, regardless of the candidate.
Yet that is not a likely outcome. Clacton is not Britain. The seat’s Labour voters are not your typical Labour voters. According to Survation, albeit using a low sample, a quarter of them have a favourable opinion about the Reform leader. The figure is 37 per cent among historic Clacton Tory supporters.
This brings us to turnout. Clacton could have the lowest turnout in by-election history – a title currently held by Manchester Central from November 2012, on 18.2 per cent. If it falls that low, then Farage’s stunt will have truly failed.
It is, however, unlikely that it will fall that low. In by-elections turnout tends to be 60 per cent of what it was in the general election. Clacton in a conventional fight ought to end up around 35 per cent. If it stays like that, and Farage amasses around 70 per cent of votes cast, then he can claim some kind of victory. If turnout is any higher, and the share stays the same, then his base’s engagement will be truly remarkable. And if Farage can turn out more than the number who turned out for him in 2024 – 21,225 – that would be astonishing. But if it’s much lower, the Reform leader will have questions to answer.
[Further reading: Meet Nigel Farage’s true nemesis]
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