A few months ago, some polls put the Greens ahead of Labour. The party won its first ever by-election in February, and in the May elections it gained control of several councils and two London mayoralties. While campaigning, some Green activists wore hoodies reading, “Ready to Replace Labour”.
But in last week’s Greater Manchester by-election, the Greens received only 12 per cent of the vote, comfortably behind Labour, which got 47 per cent of first preference votes. The Greens fought the election hard: as my colleague Megan Kenyon reported, Zack Polanski travelled to Manchester many times during the mayoral campaign. Yet the party failed to make a dent.
The Greater Manchester result can in part be put down to Andy Burnham, who is enjoying a honeymoon period as Labour’s new leader. But is the shine beginning to wear off Zack Polanski?
The Green leader’s favourability rating hasn’t moved much since the Gorton and Denton by-election. A fifth of the country like him, the same as six months ago. However, a lot more people now feel negatively towards him. At the start of 2026, many people had yet to make their minds up. Now, 40 per cent feel negatively.
A further 40 per cent of voters are still unsure what they think of Polanski. But among those who do know, only 18 to 34-year-olds have an overall favourable view of the Green leader.
Among those aged 35 to 49 years-old, Polanski has gone from level-pegging for likeability to minus 12. Among older voters his score is even worse.
This may not be down to any missteps on his part. Rather, the Greens may have just reached their natural ceiling. Their best scenario could give them a few dozen seats at the next election. But the prospect of winning power still looks far away.
[Further reading: Labour retains the Manchester mayoralty]
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Subscribe here to commentThe Greens should liaise with the LibDems to minimise the wasted vote fear that most of us have of Reform and the Tories. Where it is a Tory or Reform seat the party with the best chance of winning is given a free rein. Local polling is best at providing the basis of this claim. If they don’t liaise than both will fail. I totally accept that both parties believe with a millennial ferocity that they are the natural rulers of the kingdom but let me assure them of the inherent limits of their appeal. Zack should have stood in the Manchester by election won by the Greens. He would be making better use of his abilities in the Commons than in the London Assembly.