Campaign strategists still behave as if elections are settled months in advance, with party loyalties fixed and predictable. Increasingly, the opposite is true. Voters are deciding later and later – sometimes in the final days, even the final hours. The Gorton and Denton by-election offers a striking example.
New polling helps explain why.
I have obtained a constituency “exit poll” conducted by Survation for Datapraxis. The results are striking. More than half of voters say they were still undecided several weeks before polling day – a figure even higher among those who eventually voted Green. Almost one in five voters decided in the final three days of the campaign, including polling day itself.
More than a third of Green voters say they had also considered voting Labour. Meanwhile 41 per cent of Labour voters say they had seriously considered switching to the Greens. In other words, a large share of the electorate was genuinely up for grabs until the very end.
Nearly a month has passed since the Greens secured their first ever parliamentary by-election victory. Much of the immediate commentary focused on the symbolism of the win. But the polling suggests something more significant: the result was decided late.
The timing matters because the Greens are no longer a fringe presence. They are polling at around 16 per cent nationally, only three points behind Labour. Some polls have the two parties level. One even briefly placed the Greens ahead. The political landscape is shifting — and the volatility of the electorate is part of the story.
It was clear early in the Gorton and Denton campaign that the contest would not be a simple two-horse race. Green leaflets cited Electoral Calculus projections, while Labour leaflets pointed to Britain Predicts, each claiming their candidate was best placed to defeat Reform.
Labour activists shipped in from Yorkshire arrived on the semi-detached streets of Burnage and Levenshulme to find Green posters already in windows – before Labour had even selected its candidate.
“We were arguing against reality,” one exhausted Labour activist told me the morning after the result. “Everyone knew the Greens had a chance. And we were acting like they didn’t.”
Labour campaigners insisted the party had performed well among postal voters. If that is true, the strategy faltered among the late deciders – the large group of voters who were still weighing their options in the final days of the campaign.
The polling also reveals sharp demographic divides. Among white voters, Reform topped the poll with 46 per cent, followed by Labour on 27 per cent and the Greens on 21 per cent. Among Asian voters, however, Green support was overwhelming.
The survey sample is relatively small – 501 voters – but it still offers clues about where the Greens may grow in future contests.
More surprising is that the Greens also appear to have edged Labour into second place in some of the constituency’s older and more traditionally white areas. The party is drawing support from a broader electorate than many expected.
That coalition helped deliver an emphatic victory.
Labour’s 2024 voters split almost exactly down the middle: as many backed Labour’s candidate, Angeliki Stogia, as switched to the Greens’ Hannah Spencer. Very few defected to Reform. Nearly a quarter simply stayed home.
Few national news stories appear to have strongly influenced local voters. But among Asian voters, Labour’s immigration policy attracted more attention than Reform’s. In Denton, members of the area’s sizeable Hong Kong community told me they were hesitant to back Labour because of uncertainty over the future of indefinite leave to remain.
What, ultimately, cost Labour the seat? Several factors played a role. But one counterfactual stands out: Andy Burnham.
The Survation poll also tested a hypothetical ballot that included the Greater Manchester mayor as Labour’s candidate. Nearly three in ten Green voters say they would have switched to Burnham. More than a third say they would have been unsure how to vote or might not have voted at all. Even 14 per cent of those who backed Reform say they would have voted for him.
The same survey asked residents how they would vote in a general election today. The Greens would lead on 37 per cent, followed by Reform on 27 per cent and Labour on 25 per cent.
Just as revealing is where voters now get their political information. In Gorton and Denton, 35 per cent rely primarily on social media, compared with 32 per cent who cite television, and just 21 per cent who turn to traditional news outlets.
That shift helps explain why so many voters are deciding late. Party loyalties are weaker, campaigns more fluid and voters exposed to a far wider range of influences.
The by-election, therefore, points to something larger. The decisive voter in British politics is no longer the loyal partisan but the late decider – the one still weighing their options in the final days of the campaign.
And in that volatile electorate, the Greens are proving unexpectedly competitive.
The Gorton and Denton constituency survey was conducted by Survation on behalf of Datapraxis. Fieldwork took place 27 February-8 March, with a sample size of 501.
[Further reading: Beware: Reform UK wants to join you in your bedroom]
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