The polls are showing some strange numbers right now. Reform, according to my model Britain Elects, are tied with Labour for first place at 25 per cent each. The Conservatives are on 22 per cent. The Lib Dems on 13 per cent; the Greens are on eight. Council by-election results are giving credence to these numbers, too. These are not the product of overly logged-on, overly skewed samples. They are, it appears, a representative product of public opinion.
Labour, anxious about shedding votes to Reform, are running a series of adverts aping the party’s brand and rhetoric. The adverts boast about government deportations and use that familiar Reform shade of blue. The prevailing rhetoric is that Labour feels so under attack from the right that it feels it has to out-Farage Farage. Any MP worth their constituency’s salt would readily admit that their voters are more diverse than their party activists might appreciate. Liberal-minded MPs should know a not-insubstantial proportion of their vote is more socially conservative than they are. Because such is the case for most of the country.
But these adverts are not necessarily a sound strategy. If an election were held now, as many as 1.3 million of those that backed Labour last year would switch to the Liberal Democrats or the Greens. Notwithstanding the 0.4 million who would move from the Liberal Democrats and Greens to Labour, the direction of travel is pretty clear.
This YouGov data, which helps gauge how the country would split in a straight two-horse race, has some limitations. YouGov and others refrain from including the undecideds in polls like these. What proportion of Green voters in a Labour-vs-Reform fight, for instance, would sit it out? We know that of those with an opinion the split is nine-to-one in Labour’s favour. But that doesn’t tell us the whole story. If it’s nine-to-one of only 10 per cent who turn out, that’s not very helpful.
Therein lies our problem: we know active progressive voters will rank Labour before the Tories, and the same goes for Reform, but what proportion of those progressives would be unbothered in fights like these? What proportion have reached the stage where a Labour government to them is no better than a Conservative one? We don’t know yet. All we can say is this: Labour needs to remain a world away from the Conservatives and Reform in perception, lest these progressives look upon both and say, “What’s the difference? Why should I bother?”
What triggered this piece? Labour is tacking right on boats and borders both in policy and rhetoric to stymie Reform. It’s an appreciable reaction. But will it turn off the socially liberal?
Something to consider in closing is that those who support parties of the left are not roundly advocates for open borders. Some activists might be. But the voters, generally, across every strata, agree with the sentiment that net migration numbers need to be cut.
The debate now is not whether immigration numbers should be cut. That discussion’s been had. The debate now is about how. And all the parties need to come to terms with that.
[See also: The Reform-Tory split is a gift to Labour]
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