There was a time when Labour was reluctant to utter a word of criticism against Brexit. The only reference to the subject in Keir Starmer’s 2024 conference speech came in a passage lamenting the Conservatives’ failures on immigration. The Prime Minister even appropriated the language of Dominic Cummings for social democratic ends, declaring that “taking back control is a Labour argument”.
Fast forward to this year: Starmer praised the new trade deal with our “fellow Europeans” and assailed the “Brexit lies on the side of that bus”. That line felt like one of the most telling of the speech – this Remainer was now content to remind voters of his past (“that was me” were Starmer’s first words to a friend after leaving the conference stage).
Labour might not be seeking to reverse Brexit but it is now unafraid to point to its negative consequences. As Rachel Reeves prepares the ground for a tax-raising Budget, she has warned of the “severe and long-lasting” effects, citing the OBR’s forecast that Brexit will reduce long-term productivity by 4 per cent.
What’s changed? In part this flows from the government’s quest for growth. A Chancellor once regarded as one of the more Eurosceptic cabinet ministers has become a champion of deeper trade links and a European youth mobility scheme (which she is pushing for the OBR to “score” in its growth forecast).
But it also reflects an underappreciated sea change in British public opinion. Polls now routinely show that a majority of voters believe the UK was wrong to leave the EU. Among those who think Brexit has been a failure, 69 per cent identify Nigel Farage as responsible – more than double any other current party leader. Against an insurgent Reform, Labour has spied an opportunity to undermine Farage’s cleanskin act.
For some inside the government this has come as a liberation. “We can’t be boxed in by not pointing out the costs of no-deal Brexit forever,” one minister in a Leave-voting Red Wall seat says (Farage has vowed to repeal the EU trade deal). “That is Reform’s political economy but it’s not the majority of my voters’. It’s actually a sizable wedge between them”.
Another Labour MP, by contrast, also from a Leave seat, declares that “having spent years pursuing disaffected white working-class Brexit voters it is incomprehensible that we are now hinting that those people made a great mistake”.
While the polling may be encouraging, Labour’s strategy is not without risk. Voters revolted against the Tories but were left cold when the government then tried to blame tax rises and spending cuts on a “£22bn black hole” (some in Labour want Reeves to make a principled social-democratic case for higher taxes).
And blaming Brexit will only intensify the argument that the government should be doing more to soften it. Only today the Lib Dems have pointed to GDP growth of 0.1 per cent in August as proof that Labour needs to embrace a “bespoke new UK-EU customs union”. The Greens will similarly lead the pro-European charge. Does Labour, as in 2019, risk being trapped between Remainers and Leavers?
Insiders insist not, arguing that Labour can dominate the pragmatic middle ground: resetting the UK’s relationship with the EU while remaining outside of it. “We’re not pushing the envelope of public opinion,” says one government source. A great test of that judgement lies ahead.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[Further reading: Rayner to give resignation speech next week]
Content from our partners
Related
