What’s the best clue to who will win the next election? Some pollsters have long argued that it is the public’s preferred choice for prime minister. This measure captures the national mood in a way that voting intention alone cannot: can you picture this person outside No 10? Would you trust them with the economy and national security? Even when their parties were behind in the polls, Margaret Thatcher and David Cameron led on this measure – a portent of their eventual success.
Over the past year, even as Reform has overtaken Labour in the polls, Keir Starmer has maintained a lead over Nigel Farage – holding an eight-point advantage as recently as July. But now, after a summer in which the Reform leader dominated the political agenda, that lead has vanished. Exclusive Ipsos polling shows Starmer and Farage tied on 30 per cent – fresh evidence that Britain is toying with the prospect of a Reform government.
In a head-to-head contest with Kemi Badenoch – not a scenario many in Westminster envisage for 2029 – Starmer holds a 12-point lead (27 per cent to Badenoch’s 15). Meanwhile, although Andy Burnham polls ahead of Starmer on this measure (25–20), he too lags behind Farage (30–27).
There is good news, however, for the Greater Manchester mayor on another measure: favourability. By some distance, he remains the UK’s most popular senior politician, with a net rating of +9 (how he would perform in government is, of course, another matter).
Farage, by contrast, is on -12: almost half the electorate view the Reform leader negatively – a reminder that his path to No 10 could yet be blocked. All the major cabinet ministers polled are in negative territory, with Starmer on -33 and Rachel Reeves on -37. Nor is there much affection for the left: Jeremy Corbyn registers -27 and Zarah Sultana -21. As for Ed Davey, fresh from his appeal to “politically homeless Conservatives” at the Lib Dem conference, he is on -4 – but crucially still well ahead of Badenoch on -25.
When the same question is put to those who voted Labour in 2024, Burnham again comes out on top with a net rating of +37 – evidence of why some inside the party believe he could lift Labour’s standing. Starmer edges back into positive territory (+13), while Wes Streeting – whose recent interventions have drawn much comment – ranks second to Burnham on +18.
There are times when the Westminster narrative is at odds with the public mood. But that’s not the case here. The polling shows an electorate now openly wondering whether Farage could do a better job than Starmer. Meanwhile, Burnham enjoys the status of Labour’s king over the water, a figure who will now be assessed at the party’s conference as an alternative leader. For Starmer, the task is to prove that changing Britain’s fortunes – and Labour’s – does not require a change of prime minister.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[Further reading: Can Keir Starmer defend his left flank?]
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