When was the last time you thought about the Lib Dems? Reform has led the polls for almost eight months, Labour is the government (and engaged in an increasingly public leadership contest), the Conservatives are an improving opposition and the Greens are an insurgent one. Ed Davey and his party may hold 72 seats – more than any third party since 1923 – but they risk becoming the forgotten men of British politics.
Put this to Lib Dem strategists and they insist reports of their plight are exaggerated. A party which is sometimes squeezed outside of elections – when it benefits from campaign broadcasting rules – has held its own in the polls this year (with around 13 per cent of the vote). More importantly, in a little-noticed trend, it is winning on the ground. Since the May local elections the party has won 55 council by-elections, putting it second only to Reform – increasingly the Lib Dems’ main opponent. Gains have come in Tory targets held by the likes of shadow chancellor Mel Stride (Central Devon) and former attorney general Geoffrey Cox (Torridge and Tavistock).
In a different era, when the Lib Dems pitched themselves to Labour’s left, Zack Polanski’s Greens could have represented a strategic nightmare. But if anything, senior Lib Dems believe they are benefiting in Blue Wall areas as environmentalist Tories take fright at eco-populism. Former Conservatives unwilling to forgive their old party but troubled by Labour’s left turn on tax and spend could enable further gains.
But plenty are sceptical. The former Blair and Starmer adviser Peter Hyman yesterday awarded the Lib Dems two out of 10 for their performance this year. “They have not changed their story,” he wrote. “To be honest, they have no story. They find it impossible to insert themselves into the nation’s conversation.”
Lib Dem aides riposte that they have wielded influence in areas such as a future EU customs union – attracting 13 Labour rebels in a recent parliamentary vote – and the war in Gaza, with Davey regularly pressing Starmer over the latter at PMQs and the government eventually recognising a Palestinian state. As the NHS winter crisis intensifies, the Lib Dems believe that Davey’s record on health and social care will allow them to lead debate.
What the party will not do, they say, is take eye-catching but ultimately self-defeating positions. The Lib Dems still bear the scars of the 2019 general election when they called for the revocation of Brexit – a position applauded by Remain commentators but loathed by voters. “We lost our leader and won 11 seats,” an aide recalls ruefully.
Strategists refuse to set a target for gains at the next general election – “we have no ceiling,” Davey insisted to me back in September. But they do not dismiss the suggestion that the Lib Dems could win around 100 seats at the next election, potentially allowing them to play a kingmaker role in a hung parliament. The scale of the party’s advance was mostly missed before July 2024 – the Lib Dems’ wager is that Westminster is making the same mistake again.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[Further reading: MPs revolt as Labour ditches more Rayner reforms]
Content from our partners
Related
Join the debate
Subscribe here to comment