“If not Starmer, then who?” is the question on the Labour mind. Members and ministers are desperate for a leader who could rescue their ratings and put the government back on course. Keir Starmer is desolately unpopular.
For a while, the front-runner seemed to be Andy Burnham. But the NEC blocked him from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election. He remains without a seat in the Commons. Burnham’s coup, attempted in 2026, may now only come in 2028 or later.
Two big beasts remain. Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former Deputy Leader Angela Rayner represent the so-called “right” and “left” of the party. Both have parliamentary backing. Streeting is known by staffers as an excellent cultivator. Rayner is reported to be amassing a war-chest.
But they are not the ideal candidates to rescue Labour’s poll ratings.
Rayner’s favourables among the voting public are poor. The most recent survey puts her almost as low for likeability as Starmer himself. While she rallies Labour members she turns off more than half the voter public. Her northern appeal is non-existent. And things are no better nationally. She might be comfort food for a party rank-and file keen for a left-ward shift. But election winner? Less likely.
Streeting is less familiar to voters than Rayner. Whereas only a quarter don’t know what to think of Rayner, four-in-ten of us are apathetic about Streeting. But where he is known, he is disliked. Worse still, he has no purchase on the rank-and-file he would need in order to become leader. Here is a party dignitary who irritates more than four-in-ten of the party faithful. Streeting vs Starmer would give Starmer a rare win, says polling from Survation.
Few voters see the Labour government as very different to the one they booted out in 2024. That is the beginning, middle and end of why Labour faces such a hard task with the voters right now. “Change” was the manifesto promise, but voters aren’t feeling a thing. Consequently, they have gone wandering. The best candidate, therefore, would be one able to represent a reset.
So how about a non-entity? Al Carns, whose name Labour members I know have struggled to pronounce? (“Is it Carns or Cairns?”)
Unknown entities are not an uncommon theme of “fresh” candidates to high office. Better to try an unknown Barack and see what sticks than a known Hillary, for instance. People project anything and everything onto them. They get the “ooh, shiny!” treatment for a limited period. Some of it sticks. Much of it washes off.
And for a brand so bruised, might it be the best option going?
It’s certainly an option. Labour’s problem is part personality. It needs someone who can be heard, and not so easily written off from getting a fair hearing. But the primary problem is clarity. Who of the following do you think knows what they stand for, and can project it? These are the two fundamental question Labour members and MPs ought to ask and answer in the next weeks and months. Best candidate wins. If there is one.
[Further reading: Can Labour stop members choosing the next PM?]
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