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11 December 2025

Why Tony Blair is watching Shabana Mahmood

The former prime minister is “impressed” by the Home Secretary’s philosophy.

By George Eaton

Back in 2001, as he vowed that New Labour would be a permanent revolution, Tony Blair told his party’s conference: “It’s worse than you think. I really do believe in it.” As Shabana Mahmood announced her immigration reforms last month, this was a line echoed by her team. “This isn’t us tacking towards public opinion, we really believe it,” an aide told me then.

Last night saw Mahmood join Blair on stage at his institute’s annual Christmas party at the Old War Office building – now a Raffles hotel – in Westminster, watched by ministers including New Labour stalwart Pat McFadden and Blue Labour comrades such as Jonathan Rutherford (a new Compass pamphlet explores the common ground between that movement and the soft left). This wasn’t an anointment of the Home Secretary as the “heir to Blair” but it was a recognition that she has caught his gimlet eye (last year’s guest was Angela Rayner who often praises the last Labour government for transforming her life as a teenage mother).

“What I’ve been impressed by is that you’ve articulated a political philosophy,” said Blair who has grown increasingly frustrated with Keir Starmer. Mahmood, even internal Labour critics concede, has benefited from making an argument. “Why do people feel so angry when [immigration] rules are broken?” she asked. “Because in this country two of the things we prize above all else are fairness and contribution.”

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As a guide to Mahmood’s worldview, their 23-minute conversation was a succinct one. She rooted her politics, as so often, in her faith. “Is Alastair Campbell here? You and I can do God,” she quipped to Blair. “It is the reason I feel I’ve been called to public service. I genuinely believe life is a test and you are accountable to God for how you use the privileges you were gifted at birth”.

Place is the other pillar of Mahmood’s politics. “It’s quite rare to get the chance to represent the people you grew up with yourself,” she said of her Birmingham Ladywood constituency where her father was chair of the local party and hosted Midlands activists including a young Tom Watson in his living room.

We also saw Mahmood the lawyer – “my life’s dream was to be Kavanagh QC” – and Mahmood the fixer. Recalling the Corbyn years, when she sat on Labour’s National Executive Committee (which, in a little-noticed election, she now chairs), she declared herself a proud member of “The Resistance”.

Blair began their conversation by recalling that whenever he appointed a home secretary the “empathy was genuine”. During his time in office, two occupants of the post – David Blunkett and Charles Clarke – were forced to resign. If offered the job, Wes Streeting likes to quip, he would have declared his support for leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (the closest thing Starmer has to a sacred text).

But Mahmood is determined to defy such fatalism. “My general approach to reform of any of the systems I’ve been responsible for as a cabinet minister is that they are all a go big or go home moment, especially when things are broken”. The self-described “woman in a hurry” is now considering reducing the number of police forces in England and Wales from 43 to just 12 as part of “generational” reforms to the service.

The Home Office’s reputation as a ministerial graveyard can be overstated. “It wasn’t for Roy Jenkins,” notes one Mahmood aide. It also wasn’t for Theresa May whose next destination was Downing Street. We’ve heard less in recent weeks about Mahmood as a future Labour leader as her approval ratings among the membership have fallen. But with more sincerity than most, the Home Secretary can declare herself undeterred. After all, she really believes it.

This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here

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