In December 2023, as Rishi Sunak clashed with his recalcitrant backbenchers, the Tory MP Mark Francois declared that he had presided over a meeting of the party’s “five families”: the European Research Group, the Conservative Growth Group, the Northern Research Group, the Common Sense Group and the New Conservatives.
This Godfather analogy didn’t work for several reasons: Francois bears little resemblance to Don Corleone – Tory critics likened him to the hapless Fredo – and, far from representing distinct families, the groups’ memberships often overlapped (the former cabinet minister Simon Clarke belonged to all five). Yet this is a useful lens through which to view Labour’s internal dynamics – its five families have genuinely different histories and worldviews and have all become more organised in recent months.
Let’s start with the soft left (a name its members lament). Despite its past influence – deciding most leadership contests – this faction struggled for definition after the general election. That changed this year: the revived Tribune group, co-chaired by Louise Haigh and former whip Vicky Foxcroft, now has more than 80 MPs, enough to stand a leadership candidate, while the newly created Mainstream – a more pluralistic offshoot from Compass – moved immediately to champion Andy Burnham’s cause.
Though sometimes deemed by its own members to be “incapable of organising its way out of a paper bag”, this has been a year of victories for the soft left. It secured the election of Lucy Powell as deputy leader and shifted government policy on numerous fronts: the reversal of the winter fuel payment cuts, the welfare bill U-turn, the recognition of Palestine and the abolition of the two-child benefit cap. Ed Miliband’s success in resisting an attempt by Keir Starmer to remove him as Energy Secretary was another demonstration of its internal strength. While it lacks an agreed candidate – Angela Rayner’s comeback is in its infancy, Miliband is now more often spoken as a potential chancellor, and Burnham doesn’t have a seat – the soft left’s prominence among the membership means it could shape Labour’s future.
Its main rival family is the party’s Blairite wing, or the “soft right” as one thinker calls them. This group, which includes Wes Streeting, Peter Kyle, Liz Kendall, Steve Reed and Alison McGovern, has traditionally been centred around Progress (now Progressive Britain). It evangelises for public-service reform and artificial intelligence, worries about Labour’s pro-business credentials, and favours a more robust European turn. While often dismissed as unelectable by activists – the legacy of Kendall’s 4.5 per cent in the 2015 leadership election – an increasing number across the party believe that Streeting has a path to victory as a more pragmatic membership asks who could beat Nigel Farage.
Distinct from this wing is the “old right” – more economically interventionist and socially conservative – centred around Labour First, which this year established a formal parliamentary grouping led by MPs Luke Akehurst and Gurinder Singh Josan, and Labour peers John Spellar and Ruth Smeeth (more than 50 MPs have signed up). Closer to the trade unions than the liberal right, this faction has been cheered by a government that has expanded workers’ rights, revived industrial strategy and embraced hawkish stances on defence and immigration (Rachel Reeves is among its cabinet champions).
Then there’s Blue Labour – a fusion of Aristotelian philosophy, ethical socialism, Burkean conservatism and German industrial democracy – which published its own manifesto in April and established a parliamentary grouping under Dan Carden with over 30 MPs. By virtue of its iconoclastic founder Maurice Glasman and its close links to Morgan McSweeney it wields disproportionate influence. Both Blue Labour and the old right are sympathetic to Shabana Mahmood – one reason many moot a “deal” between her and Streeting – though some on the latter wing float John Healey, the flinty Defence Secretary, as a dark horse candidate.
Finally, there’s the hard left. Forty-three years after its creation by Tony Benn, the Socialist Campaign Group endures under Richard Burgon with 24 Labour MPs. Mindful that no figure from this wing will make a leadership ballot (81 MPs are required), it has indicated its willingness to back Burnham as a “clean hands” candidate outside of government.
You’ll notice that Starmer can’t call any of these factions his own. While traditionally associated with the soft left, his government has routinely clashed with this tribe. That’s one reason why the Prime Minister finds himself far more isolated than predecessors such as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – he doesn’t have a praetorian guard. Perhaps the only consolation for Starmer is that, fearful of the wrong family winning, Labour’s rival factions may yet play for time. The danger is that they eventually unite around one proposition: a change is needed.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[Further reading: Andrea Egan wins Unison general secretary election]
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