In 2005, facing Nigel Farage in the European Parliament, Tony Blair jabbed his finger at him and declared: “You sit there with our country’s flag – but you do not represent our country’s interests.” The clip routinely resurfaces on social media as a model of how to dismantle the Reform leader (who had asked why “British taxpayers” should “pay for new sewers in Budapest”). No politician today can dismiss Farage with such ease. Back then, he was one of a dozen Ukip MEPs to whom the epithet “swivel-eyed” was traditionally attached. Today, Farage is entrenched as the favourite to become the next prime minister – and privately regarded by Blair as the “best communicator” in British politics.
The former PM and his allies used to speak of the importance of “owning the future”. Over the summer recess Farage has resembled a man who does. Reform has led every opinion poll since May with an average rating of 30 per cent to Labour’s 20 per cent (putting the party just two points ahead of Kemi Badenoch’s marooned Conservatives). Farage’s talking points – small-boat crossings, “lawless Britain” – have become the country’s. Like Donald Trump, he grasps the power of politics as entertainment: the launch of a Reform football kit and an AI video depicting Farage as a fur-coated hip-hop star are tailor-made for the attention economy. One left-wing Labour MP observes how Farage “appears to enjoy every minute of his day” – an infectious quality in an often morose political culture.
Confronted by Reform’s ascent, Downing Street is phlegmatic. Aides defend a more aggressive strategy towards Farage – ads declare he is failing women and girls – as necessary to ensure greater scrutiny of a party that is being “looked through rather than looked at”. Reform’s opposition to online age verification is, they note, at odds with a majority (56 per cent) of the party’s own voters. “That libertarian position has to be exposed, it’s a vulnerability and people do want children protected,” says a No 10 strategist.
Some in Labour believe that Farage, as much as four years out from a general election, has been too quick to rush out policy proposals. “Reform are a party of vibes but they’re putting a bigger and bigger target on their back,” remarks a senior source. As Farage seeks to woo business through a “bacon-and-egg offensive”, Rachel Reeves will emphasise that the party threatens new trade deals with the EU and India, green investment and hundreds of thousands of jobs.
One of the Chancellor’s central messages ahead of the Budget will be that the economy – the fastest-growing in the G7 so far this year – “is not broken”; Starmer intends to rebut Farage’s wider charge that “Britain is broken”. To critics this jars with the pre-existing narrative of a government that has intermittently described almost every public service as such. Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, No 10 offers a more nuanced assessment than some advance reports have suggested. The country might not be “broken” but it remains “in decline”, says an aide, warning “any sense of boosterism will go down badly” after the Tories left “destroyed public services, a stagnant economy and borders in chaos”.
What is the route out of decline? Focus groups by Labour Together show that voters considering Reform are driven less by attraction towards the opposition than by frustration with Labour. Having failed to see the change they wanted, Farage appeals as a catch-all protest (“It’s not about the specific things he says he’ll do,” one voter comments). The hopeful conclusion that some draw is that provided Labour delivers, it can win over a restive electorate.
But others inside the party believe a bigger strategic reset is needed. This group – which takes Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham as its lodestars – wants to see the government tell a more progressive story about itself and chart a more radical course. “Can we change the terrain of the debate off the issues Reform wants to talk about and on to popular economic dividing lines?” asks one Labour source. Polling by Persuasion shows that voters attribute more blame to “rich and wealthy business elites” for Britain’s problems than they do to immigrants and asylum seekers (by 44 per cent to 38 per cent).
The soft left, which often struggled to make itself heard during Labour’s first year in government, is now organising. Compass, which was founded in 2003 to champion alternatives to Blairism, aims to launch a new party grouping by mid-September. Its conference earlier this year was addressed by Burnham, the energy minister Miatta Fahnbulleh (who some in Westminster believe is vulnerable in a forthcoming reshuffle), the former cabinet minister Louise Haigh, and the former leadership candidate Clive Lewis.
By framing the next election as a contest between Labour and Reform, some argue that Starmer aims effectively to guilt-trip progressives into supporting him. This strategy is likened to that of Emmanuel Macron, who twice defeated the far-right Marine Le Pen by summoning a “republican front”. But Labour strategists bristle at this comparison, dismissing it as a “vacuous” approach that represents a “pessimistic view” of what they can achieve.
Here is the Starmerite contention: that there is nothing wrong with Britain that cannot be cured by what is right with Britain. Yet even sympathisers are losing faith. “This could deteriorate further and become easily the worst Labour government in history – and that’s saying something,” warns one grandee. As critics cry that country and party alike are broken, this autumn could be Starmer’s last chance to prove otherwise.
[See more: Rachel Reeves will never get serious on tax]
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This article appears in the 27 Aug 2025 issue of the New Statesman, The Gentle Parent Trap
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