For Labour, this has been an uneasy summer. Average support for the party has reached a new low of 21 per cent, a fall almost unprecedented for a one-year government. Reform, which has led every poll since May, is insurgent on the right; a new party is gestating on the left. Should one be needed, the Tories offer a preview of how quickly “midterm blues” can become an existential crisis.
In these grim times, MPs cast around for signs of life in the Labour family. Away from Westminster, their eyes are drawn to Manchester. In an era when incumbents are defined by their unpopularity, one figure stands apart from this trend: Andy Burnham.
It’s easy to dismiss the twice-defeated leadership candidate (and plenty still do). But after eight years running Greater Manchester, Burnham is the only senior Labour politician with a positive net approval rating (+7) and the public’s preferred choice to succeed Keir Starmer as leader. Among party members, the group who would determine the outcome, his ratings are positively North Korean: a favourability rating of +78 (in a new LabourList poll).
Burnham has done little to discourage speculation about his future. Back in June, as I reported at the time, he made what amounted to a leadership pitch at Compass’s conference, offering a “popular left programme” of economic and constitutional radicalism: the reversal of local authority cuts, higher wealth taxes and proportional representation.
It’s one that some MPs – plenty of them former Burnham critics – are increasingly attracted by. “He’s the only possible front-runner not tainted by being part of this government,” remarks one influential backbencher. “Andy says he has changed. Personally, I believe him.” Another senior figure suggested: “There are many more than 80 MPs who would nominate him.” Neal Lawson, the head of Compass, which is repositioning itself as the leader of Labour’s soft left, comments: “Burnham is proving himself to be popular in the party and is seen to have the character and politics to win the country. I meet a lot of people in Labour increasingly willing this to happen.”
But is there a way? Speculation over Burnham’s imminent return is an old Westminster sport and there’s been plenty of it in recent weeks. The Manchester mayor’s route back, Labour figures observe, could lie in a by-election in Gorton and Denton, the north-west seat currently held by his former campaign manager Andrew Gwynne, who lost the Labour whip over offensive WhatsApp messages (those close to Burnham dismiss the Gorton and Denton rumours as the “usual summer silly season”). Starmer loyalists, however, suggest that a National Executive Committee broadly aligned to the leadership could bar the mayor’s path.
For now, Burnham fills the same political role that Boris Johnson did under David Cameron: an alternative leader who is popular among both party and country and who routinely dissents on matters of national policy. Just as Johnson held up London as a model for the UK, so Burnham does the same with Greater Manchester – the region which has enjoyed faster productivity growth than any other since 2004. Should Labour’s woes continue to deepen, it’s a pitch that will only receive more attention.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: What JD Vance was really doing in Britain this week]
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