For every political problem, there is always an answer that is simple, obvious and wrong. In the case of Labour’s disappointing results in these elections – losing Runcorn and 198 council seats, reportedly double what party strategists had expected – the wrong response would be a panicked government reshuffle and a policy shift to the right.
Political defeats are chastening but they can be instructive if they are analysed properly. The strength of Reform in creating a multi-party electoral contest has to be acknowledged, but it is part of a decade-long trend. Brexit, the Corbyn surge, Boris Johnson’s landslide, Keir Starmer’s victory last year. They were all a demand for change. Support for Reform is the latest manifestation.
Labour rode that tide with their general election slogan. But what have the government done that has made a difference? The emblematic policy that always comes up in focus groups is the cut to the winter fuel allowance – why is Labour, swing voters ask, attacking pensioners? Voters can’t find an answer, not least because the Labour government have been unable to explain it at all except saying that they didn’t want to do it.
It is always impossible for political parties to justify actions that run counter to their core values and Brand Labour is about expanding the welfare state not cutting it. The next inexplicable act by Labour is cutting £4,500 a year from a million disabled people. Focus groups are revolted when they hear that Labour’s proposals mean that people who can’t wash below their waist will lose benefits and be expected to go into work.
This week’s election results will be a just rebuke for Keir Starmer’s government. And a vote for Reform is, in truth, a vote against Labour’s form of neoliberal austerity rather than a demand for a more racist immigration system. Just look at Nigel Farage’s rebranding as the worker’s friend who backs nationalisation. When the most charismatic politician in the UK is cosplaying social democracy it’s time for an actual progressive party to be true to itself.
There are five steps Labour should take to respond to this electoral problem. The first is the hardest – acknowledge that the voters are right. (In a democracy, they’re never wrong.) Labour has to recognise its mistakes, apologise for them and repair the damage. The only way to begin to restore trust is to recognise that the cut to the winter fuel allowance was defining moment for Keir Starmer’s government – making Labour seem “cruel”.
The second step is to start promoting Labour policies that are popular with voters. It turns out there are plenty of them – they just don’t ever seem to get a prominent place in the No 10 communications grid. Renting reform. New rights for workers. Pay increases for teachers, doctors and nurses. Raising the national minimum wage to 65 per cent of the median wage. Great British Energy. Nationalising rail and steel. It’s time to stop being radical by stealth.
Third, start to use the ministers responsible for those policies to promote them. By and large, it’s the soft left in the cabinet who are doing popular things. So get Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband and Heidi Alexander out there. To paraphrase Tony Blair, the Starmer government is at its best when at its most “soft left”. That’s also one of the many reasons why the relentless briefing against Labour’s most popular politicians should stop.
Fourth, once the Labour government accepts the key to its success – social democracy – then it can start to develop a domestic doctrine. Part of the success of Starmer’s government internationally is that David Lammy framed Labour’s approach as “progressive realism”. That works well for all international policy – whether defence and security, trade, aid or geopolitics. The challenge when looking at the reform agendas of Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, Bridget Phillipson, Liz Kendall, Jonathan Reynolds and Angela Rayner is to identify the common principle or ideology uniting them. Even the Tories had one – “levelling up” – which though imprecise and hard to measure was a clear intention. Modern social democrats should be unashamed that their aim is to reduce inequality.
Finally, regret isn’t enough – policy missteps must be reversed. How to do that? Start by finding the money. It’s always been clear that Rachel Reeves won’t change her fiscal rules – the Trump-induced global economic turbulence makes that even less likely. But the Spring Statement showed an alternative route – over £3bn of headroom was approved by the Office for Budget Responsibility because of changes to planning laws and regulations. Set Angela Rayner the task of finding more headroom by fast-tracking reforms. If it can be done once, it can be down twice. Other cabinet ministers can be similarly tasked. What, for instance, would be the economic benefit of completing HS2? Or creating a progressive free-trade area with Canada and Australia with their new governments?
Justifiable criticism from voters deserves a creative, progressive response. If this Labour government needed telling again, these local elections should be interpreted as an overdue and alarming reminder.
[See also: Keir Starmer must attack now to see off Farage]
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