Whisper it as yet, but after five long years of confusion and disarray, the British left is rallying. Local political organisations are coalescing, from Chiswick to Liverpool to Newcastle. The Green Party leadership contest has become a straight fight between an energetic, “eco-populist” left candidate, and the party’s more cautious establishment. The prize is clear: local elections due next May across England’s major cities, including London councils. After that, who knows. Could Labour’s urban fiefdoms fall victim to the rout northern councils saw in the local elections last month?
It won’t be easy. Bitterly, almost viscerally unpopular as Labour may be, it is the self-styled insurgents of Nigel Farage’s Reform that have been the overwhelming beneficiaries of the Starmer slump. Farage himself has been happy to pilfer from the left – a long-time Thatcherite now turned improbable friend of the welfare state. But the Reform squeeze isn’t only on Starmer’s Labour, who, after talking up their fiscal discipline at huge political cost are now u-turning on its most unpopular consequences. It’s also a squeeze on all those on England’s left who fondly imagine that the popularity of their traditional policies, from nationalisation to more welfare spending, is enough to win them votes. Instead, they’re now seeing those same demands nabbed by opportunists from the radical right, precisely because they are popular. A new programme for 21st-century England will be needed, focused relentlessly on the everyday cost of living and wealth inequality.
But new organisations are also needed. Peter Mandelson once spoke of a Labour left buried in a “sealed tomb” by New Labour. This proved to be optimistic, as the Corbyn surge of the 2010s proved. And fearful of a second Corbyn-style resurrection, Starmer’s operation has driven a stake through the left’s heart, stuffed its mouth with garlic, placed it in a lead-lined coffin, sealed the tomb, and stationed a grim-faced 24-hour armed guard outside, gripping their pistols and blazing torches. The monster will not now escape. As a political force, the Labour left is finished. The tactic of entryism – entering the Labour party and changing it – is finished too.
Instead, the party’s steely-eyed Van Helsings should have been looking elsewhere. From the shadows, far away from Westminster, a terrifying new apparition is approaching. Disguised by the size of Labour’s majority, the 2024 election saw the non-Labour left win its biggest parliamentary representation in British history, on its biggest vote ever. Four million voters returned nine left MPs, spread between the Greens and five independents, including Jeremy Corbyn in Islington. At the height of its success, in the late 1940s, the Communist Party won two MPs and 94,000 votes. Since the foundation of the Labour Party itself, the non-Labour left has never seen anything like this support.
Against a seemingly monolithic Labour majority, this may have mattered little. Britain’s perverse voting system found Keir Starmer foisted into Downing Street with a landslide majority, but with half a million fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn lost by in 2019. As a result, the party has been left with more marginal seats than ever before in its history. Fifty-one of its seats were won with a margin of less than 5 per cent.
Accurately described after the election by polling expert James Kaganasooriam as a “sandcastle majority”, the turning political tide has now washed away Labour’s 2024 support. The main beneficiaries, for now, are Reform, whose spectacular success in the local government elections saw them win control of previously Labour councils from Durham to Derbyshire. Its one-time heartlands in the North of England were already riddled and on the verge collapse, with Boris Johnson’s demolition of this so-called “Red Wall” in 2019 having already delivered the fatal blow. Johnson’s failure to hold his new coalition together, coupled with Liz Truss’ calamitous 44 days in office, saw many of Johnson’s wins fall back into Labour hands five years later – but on the most tenuous and temporary basis.
Demographic change, and a great, decades-long shift in the economy from manufacturing to services, has created new heartlands for the party, concentrated in inner cities and major urban areas across the country: a mix of underpaid, insecure younger workers, often with university degrees; more settled ethnic minority communities; and a solid layer of public sector employees, many of whom are now at or approaching retirement. Generally socially liberal, 15 years of persistent economic failure since the financial crisis have shoved this base increasingly to the economic left. And 25 years of failed military interventions have created a deep cynicism about Britain’s role abroad – crystallised in the distance between Starmer’s government and its voters on Israel.
Even before entering Downing Street, the horrors of Gaza, and Britain’s complicity in them, had been a powerful solvent on Labour’s new base of support. That undermined Labour’s vote in 2024, and resulted in the arrival of the “Gaza independents”, the four pro-Palestinian MPs elected in the strongly Muslim areas of Leicester, Blackburn, Dewsbury and Birmingham. Combined with Labour’s blunders and cruelties in office, from the Winter Fuel Payment to disability allowance cuts, the party’s support has been hollowed out. Its voters won’t vote, its activists aren’t active, and the party’s once-fearsome ground game is crumbling.
There was a taste of what could be to come in Haringey last month when a Green Party candidate, Rurairdh Paton, was elected by a landslide in a solidly Labour and solidly working class ward. Tellingly, local campaigners report that Labour grew so desperate for campaigners that local councillors from Folkestone in Kent were drafted in to door-knock. It’s the better-established Greens who can seize this opportunity in Labour strongholds. Zack Polanski’s leadership bid, and the newly formed internal faction, Greens Organise, have already identified the potential for a breakthrough. Polling shows the Green’s support to be younger, and poorer, than the other national parties. These are not the middle-class do-gooders of legend.
The broader left, outside the Greens, needs to recognise how the world has changed. Rumours that Jeremy Corbyn was about to set up a new party have swirled around him since his expulsion from Labour, almost five years ago. National negotiations to establish a new party, organised between different chunks of the post-Corbyn left, have come to little. A combination of political caution, and disagreements over a new party’s potential direction and leadership have so far scuppered agreement.
Perhaps wisely, Corbyn himself has been wary of jumping the gun. The history of left-wing breakaways from Labour, from the Independent Labour Party in the 1930s, to Scottish Labour in the 1970s, to Respect in the 2000s, has not been a happy one. Only George Galloway has, to date, made anything like a success of it, and then only via an increasingly eccentric one-man triangulation between the economic left and “socially conservative” right. Whatever else he may be, Jeremy Corbyn is not George Galloway. And declaring a new party will not magically reproduce his 2015 breakthrough. Cooperation across the non-Labour left is the order of the day.
On the ground, this cooperation is already starting to happen. In Lancashire, Greens have banded together with the newly formed Preston Independents to become the official opposition on the County Council. Greens and Independents are working closely in Islington. Local organisations are being pulled together by prominent independent left candidates, like former mayor Jamie Driscoll in Tyneside, Faiza Shaheen in Chingford, and former ANC MP Andrew Feinstein, who came second place in Keir Starmer’s own constituency of Holborn and St Pancras at the 2024 election. Green Party members in all those constituencies are working alongside the independent left.
Local alliances can become a national force. Across the channel, France’s New Popular Front, an alliance between forces of the traditional left, the left populist France Insoumise, and the French Greens, was pulled together in weeks on a radical programme that catapulted the alliance to top of the polls in the snap elections – and pushed Marine Le Pen’s National Rally to third place. France Insoumise MP Danielle Obono spoke at the London Green Party’s conference last month on the practical experience of unity. There’s a desire to learn from what worked – and what did not.
The next general election isn’t due until 2029. But a string of local council victories next year would pave the way for an unprecedented challenge to Labour – not from the right, as the party has always had to fight, but from its radical flank. And this new movement could take parts of Labour with them: from the tone of his Guardian op-ed on Wednesday, John McDonnell already regards his party as half-lost. Far from the coming in from the cold, what was once the Labour left has a different goal: burning the house down and building something completely new.
[See also: Child poverty is rallying the Labour left]
Content from our partners
Related
