Next week, a centre-left leader will face electoral oblivion despite delivering an agenda of housebuilding, green economic transition and growth. His social democratic party has been ravaged by the populist hard right in its former industrial heartlands and is losing ground to the left in urban areas. Immigration dominates the political discourse and the governing party is now polling in third place with less than 20 per cent of the vote.
Although direct parallels between the imminent German election and the challenge for our relatively new Labour government should be treated with care, the result will provoke reflection. And so it should. We recently spent time with Social Democratic Party (SPD) colleagues and found a movement facing existential questions, bereft of ideas and on the cusp of losing power after one term.
Our government is operating in a different context. First, Labour enjoys a large majority in parliament, whereas the SPD governed as part of a complicated “traffic light” coalition that stifled action and decision-making. There are no excuses here. Secondly, Olaf Scholz’s term has been dominated by two crises: a global pandemic and the war in Ukraine which drastically affected energy prices in Germany. The politics of the latter are also far more complex, with a strain of pro-Russian sentiment not present in the UK. Hopefully, the Labour government will operate in more benign circumstances.
However, there are undoubtedly lessons to be learned. Firstly, the populist right must be taken seriously and confronted head-on. The assertion that challenging them merely fuels their rise is wishful thinking. The genie is out of the bottle, and Labour’s political operation must not just defend the government but attack aggressively the credentials and agenda of the hard right – while respecting its supporters. There is fertile ground on Reform’s preposterous tax-and-spend commitments, its flirtation with foreign tech billionaires, and attempts to justify Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as its undermining of the NHS. The populist right also fails to understand modern security demands, with a focus on insular nationalism and internal division which would leave us vulnerable.
Focus on the issues, and don’t be blinded by your distaste for populist politics. In Germany, the centre has often been unable to grapple with the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on issues of substance. Too often it is distracted by superficial issues and process. Criticism of the language the populist right uses, or legal challenges to its existence, only aid its insurgent strategy. While constitutionally, and for understandable reasons, Germany aims to outlaw far-right movements, law cannot replace politics and must not be a central weapon. To adapt a famous line, “the law is the refuge of the coward,” and this is especially true in the fight against populism. Fundamentally, this must be a battle of ideas.
The ruling party must not become the establishment. Every day, it must strain every sinew to tear down the system that has failed working people and rebuild it from first principles. On immigration, welfare, tax, defence and international development, it must be willing to think the unthinkable, make enemies of notional friends and break out of the outdated social liberal consensus. This will require imaginative policymaking and brave political leadership across Whitehall. Technocratic tinkering will not suffice. Change needs to be radical and muscular.
Policy delivery will not necessarily be rewarded. On immigration, Chancellor Olaf Scholz regularly speaks of “visible success”, with “irregular migration” down by 30 per cent over the last 12 months. But he has not been rewarded politically. Immigration levels remain too high and the government has failed to own the agenda. It has felt to voters as if the centre left is being reluctantly forced by public opinion, rather than leading the debate because it truly understood and shared their concerns.
Radical change must form part of a national story. A coherent critique of the past, and not just the previous government, must be combined with an optimistic vision for the future. Patriotism, and making Britain great again, must be at the heart of this vision. This will determine foreign policy priorities, to ensure the UK walks confidently on the world stage after a decade of uncertainty and chaos.
Communication must be responsive to the modern world. The government, rapid, counter-intuitive and surprising, must use different avenues to reach new audiences. It must not be apologetic, but lead with urgency to reflect the systematic change required to alter people’s lives. The AfD dominates on social media channels such as TikTok and is gaining support with younger voters. Scholz, by comparison, often seems wooden and cumbersome.
We are in a new age of disruptive politics. The old rules of the game no longer apply. Across the world, the warnings are clear. Unless the centre left keeps up and leads the change, we are in danger of arriving at a gun fight with a pea shooter.
[See also: Labour’s Reformation]
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