Today is English elections day. There are 1,641 council seats across 24 local authorities up for grabs as well as six mayoralties (Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Doncaster, Greater Lincolnshire, Hull and East Yorkshire, North Tyneside, and the West of England). But the contest that will be watched most closely is in Runcorn and Helsby – the by-election triggered by the resignation of the convicted Mike Amesbury.
Both Labour and Reform concede that the contest will go down to the wire. Should Nigel Farage’s party win, the conclusion that Keir Starmer’s MPs will draw is that if he can win there, he can win here (Reform is second-placed in 88 Labour seats).
If Labour wins, Starmer’s government will have won a much-needed reprieve. But a margin below a thousand would be no great victory (the party’s current majority stands at 14,696). My Britain Predicts model gives Labour a razor-thin one-point lead over Reform (around 300-400 votes). That’s nothing to be confident about. All of which makes whispers from Labour insiders to me that they might win by “a bit more than that” interesting. Is this how you play the expectation management game?
Whatever the outcome, Labour faces a serious challenge from Farage. But so do the Conservatives, who today will be defending more than two thirds of the seats up for election. That’s because these councillors last faced the voters in 2021 – the spring which saw the Covid-19 vaccine rollout and the aftermath of the Brexit deal, both of which boosted Boris Johnson’s personal ratings. That spring, the Tories won by as much as they did at the 2019 general election (while Labour’s defeat in the Hartlepool by-election prompted Starmer to consider resigning).
Now the party flounders in third place. Compared with 2021, it is down 20 points. Labour, meanwhile, is down 11. In normal circumstances, that two-party swing should result in net gains for Starmer. But Reform’s insurgency, the Lib Dems’ rebirth and the rise of the Greens and pro-Gaza independents could easily spoil that.
Reform is bidding for control of Lincolnshire, Durham and Doncaster (the last, in Ed Miliband’s backyard, would be particularly sweet for Farage). Labour hopes it can gain minority control of Lancashire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire. Whereas the Tories have little cause for hope. A bad result rather than a catastrophic one would now give CCHQ cause for cheer. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, need to reinforce their parliamentary advance by winning control of councils such as Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Shropshire.
All change is the order of the day. My Britain Elects forecast anticipates that the Tories will lose more than half their seats (-538) and that Labour as a consequence might eke out net gains (+72). The Lib Dems should gain more than a hundred, while Reform, from a standing start, will win 311. The Greens, meanwhile, should add a healthy dozen or two.
Now to election night itself. Most councils will not be counting on the evening itself. Instead we’ll get Northumberland, parts of Staffordshire, Lincolnshire and the Runcorn by-election – some very Reform-friendly areas, essentially. The rest of England will follow on Friday morning (which should bring good news for the Lib Dems).
And we will be covering it all on the New Statesman website with analysis from Andrew, George and David Gauke among others. For ward-by-ward results, bookmark my map here. I’ll see you on the other side.
[See also: Keir Starmer must attack now to see off Farage]
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